AI ECONOMY ZERO PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT 人工智能 Vs 失业率
作者：外语学习小站IN THE AI ECONOMY, THERE WILLBE ZERO PERCENT UNEMPLOYMENT
人工智能经济的〇失业率
THE DEMAND FOR INTELLIGENCEAND LABOR WILL ALWAYS BE GREATER THAN THE SUPPLY.
脑力和体力的需求永远大于供给。
ANDREW MAYNE 安德鲁·梅恩
ANDREW MAYNE is the founder of Interdimensional, is a Wall StreetJournal best-selling author, and served as the science communicator for OpenAI.
安德鲁·梅恩是Interdimensional的创始人、华尔街时报畅销书作者，供职于OpenAI。
I’M AN AIdeveloper and consultant, and when OpenAI released a preview inFebruary of its text-to-video model Sora—an AI capable ofgenerating cinema-quality videos—I started getting urgentrequests from the entertainment industry and from investmentfirms. You could divide the calls into two groups. Group A was concernedabout how quickly AI was going to disrupt a current business model. Group Bwanted to know if there was an opportunity to get a piece of thedisruptive action.
我是一名人工智能开发工程师和咨询顾问，当OpenAI在2月份发布了文本→视频模型SORA(一种能够生成如电影效果的高品质视频的人工智能)的预览版时，我开始收到娱乐行业和投资公司的发来的紧急咨询。这些咨询可以分为两组。A组，未来的人工智能会以多快的速度颠覆当前的商业模式。B组，想知道这种颠覆产业的变革中是否还有机会从中分得一杯羹。
Counterintuitively, the venture capitalists and showbiz people were equally split across thegroups. Hollywood producers who were publicly decrying the threatof AI were quietly looking for ways to capitalize on it. Techstartups that thought they had an inside track to disruptingHollywood were suddenly concerned that they were about to bedisrupted by a technical advance they didn’t see coming.
与大家直觉不同的是，风投专家和娱乐圈人士在两组中平分秋色。好莱坞的制片人一边公开地谴责人工智能可能对电影产业带来威胁，一边又悄悄地探寻利用人工智能提高影片制作效率的方法。那些曾经认为自己的技术可以颠覆好莱坞的科技初创公司也开始突然担心，有一天他们将被一项他们没有预见到的技术而淘汰。
This is the newnormal: Even the disruptors are afraid they’re about to bedisrupted. We’re headed for continuous disruption, both for oldindustries and new ones. But we’re also headed for the longestperiod of economic growth and lowest unemployment in history—provided we don’t screwit up.
这将变成一个新的常态：即使是产业的搅局者也害怕自己未来某一天被取代。我们正在走向持续的变革的年代，无论是对旧的产业还是对新的行业。如果我们不自己搞砸的话，也许人类历史将迎来高速的经济增长期，同时最低的失业率。
As AI and robotics accelerate in capabilities and find their way intovirtually every corner of our economy, the prospects for human labor have neverbeen better. Because of AI-driven economic growth, demandfor human workers will increase; virtually anyone wanting to enter thework force will have opportunities to find meaningful, well-compensated careers. How we look at work will change, and the continuous disruption willcause a lot of anxiety. But the upside will be socialimprovements to levels we cannot currently comprehend. Roles and jobsmay shift more frequently, but it will be easier to switch and morelucrative to do so.
随着人工智能和机器人技术的加速发展，现实社会的每个角落都可以看到它们的影子，人类工作的前景将变得更好。人工智能驱动经济的增长，对劳动力的需求也会随着增加，进入职场的人们有机会找到更有意义及报酬丰厚的职业。人们看待工作的方式将会改变，当然持续的劳动力转型也会引起很多焦虑。届时社会结构将进步到很高的程度，人们的社会角色与工作也会转变地更频繁，转换将会更容易，收入也会更高。
Whilesome of my peers in artificial intelligence have suggested AI could eliminatethe need for work altogether and that we should explore alternativeeconomic models like a universal basic income, I think proposals likethat don’t take into account the historic effect of automation onthe economy and how economic growth increases the demand for labor.
尽管我的一些从事人工智能研发的同事提出，未来人工智能将会取代人工，我们需要考虑一种可以满足全体人群基本收入的经济模式。我的个人观点，从历史上工业自动化对经济的影响来看，经济的发展也必然会带来劳动力需求的提升。
History and basiceconomics both suggest that AI will not make human beings economicallyirrelevant. AI and robotics will keep growing the economy,because they continuously increase productivity and efficiency.As the economy grows, there’s always going to be a widening gap between demand and capacity. Demand for human laborwill increase even when AI and robotics are superior and more efficient, preciselybecause there won’t be enough AI and robots to meet the growing needs.
从历史和基础经济结构来看，人工智能不可能把人类排除在经济发展之外。人工智能和机器人技术将继续推动经济发展，不断提高生产力及效率。随着经济的增长，供需之间的差距会变大，即使人工智能和机器人更先进、高效，但对人力的需求也会增加，因为不可能所有的人工智能和机器人可以满足日益增长的经济需求。
ECONOMICGROWTH IS ACCELERATED BY TECHNOLOGY
科技的进步推进了经济的发展
THE GOAL OF commercialAI and robotics is to create efficiencies—that is, to dosomething more inexpensively than prior methods,whether by people or machines. You use an industrial robot to weld a car because a human welder would take too long and wouldn’t have near theprecision. You use ChatGPT to help write a grant proposal because it saves you time and means you don’t have to pay someone else to helpwrite it.
人工智能和机器人的商业化应用，其目的是提高生产效率。相比之前的人工和设备，其投入成本更低。例如工业机器人焊接一台汽车，相比人工焊接，其效率更高更精确。你可以使用ChatGPT来写一份提案书，从而节约你的时间，或者雇佣人工的金钱成本。
Withan increase in efficiency, you can either lower prices ornot lower prices and buy a private island. If you don’tlower prices, you run the risk of competition from someone who sees their ownpath to a private island through your profits. As Amazon’s Jeff Bezos oncesaid, “Your margin is my opportunity.” In a free market, youusually don’t get to reap high margins forever. Eventually, someone else usesprice to compete.
随着生产效率的提高，你可以选择降低产品价格以提高竞争力，也可以选择不降价提升利润进而实现自己的财富目标（购买私人岛屿）。如果你不降价，就面临着来自竞品的威胁，因为你的竞争对手看到了你的利润空间，就是他们实现财富自由的机会。正如，亚马逊创始人杰夫·贝索斯曾经说过：“你的利润空间就是我的竞争机会。”在自由市场中，你不可能永远获得高额利润，最终会有其他人利用价格来进行竞争。
Along with this competition comes growth,which also drives innovation. The computer add-on boards used for the Halo and Call of Duty games turned out to be reallyuseful for the kind of computations it takes to produce an AIlike ChatGPT. Thanks to that quirk of mathematics, Nvidia was able to add $2trillion to its market cap over the last five years, and we weresaved from the drudgery of writing lengthy emails and otherrepetitive text tasks. Along with that market cap came huge profits.Nvidia is now using those profits to fund research into everything from faster microchips to robotics. Other large companies, suchas Microsoft and Google, are also pouring profits intonew startups focusing on AI, health, and robotics. All of this causes economicgrowth and cheaper and/or better goods.
行业竞争的加剧也引领着科技的创新。曾经为<光晕><使命召唤>等电脑游戏，提供增强游戏显示效果的电脑显卡设备，利用它强大的算力功能，摇身一变也可以为ChatGPT这样的人工智能工具提供算力支持。得益于芯片算力技术的积累，GPU芯片巨头英伟达在过去的5年间，公司市值增加了2万亿美元。同时，先进的人工智能技术把我们从繁重的文案工作中解脱出来。英伟达从股票中获取的巨额利润，会加大在芯片及机器人技术上的投入。另一些科技巨头，如微软、谷歌，也将利润投入到了专注于人工智能、健康和机器人技术的初创企业中。科技革命引领经济增长，降低产品成本的同时，商品品质也得以提升。
Even withcontinuous technological disruption displacing and destroying other industries, the United States gross domestic product hasmore than doubled over the last 20 years, from $11 trillion to$27 trillion. If you compare the U.S. to the slightly more technophobic European Union, you can make the case that Europe’s limitsto technologic growth—through legislation and through risk-averseinvestment strategies—is one of the factors causingslower economic growth (Europe’s growth rate was 45.61 percentcompared with 108.2 percent in the U.S.).
尽管不断的技术革新导致相关产业遭受到被取代或破坏的风险，但美国国内生产总值GDP在过去20年中翻了一番，从11万亿美元增长到27万亿美元。如果将美国与略显对技术恐惧的欧盟进行比较，你可以看到：欧洲的种种法规对技术增长的限制（通过立法和风险规避投资策略）是导致欧盟经济增长缓慢的因素之一。（欧洲增长率为45.61％，而美国为108.2％）。
长难句解析：
If you compare the U.S. to the slightly more technophobicEuropean Union, you can make the case that Europe’s limits to technologicgrowth—through legislation and through risk-averse investment strategies—is oneof the factors causing slower economic growth.
这句话有几个关键部分需要分析：
1. "If you compare the U.S. to the slightly more technophobicEuropean Union," - 这是一个条件句，引出了对美国和欧盟的比较。它使用了一个条件从句 "If youcompare..."，表明了一个假设或条件，然后跟随着主句来解释这个条件下的情况。
2. "you can make the case that Europe’s limits to technologicgrowth—throughlegislation and through risk-averse investment strategies—is one of the factors causing slower economic growth." - 这是主要论述的部分。它表明了在条件下（即对美国和欧盟进行比较），你可以提出一个观点：欧洲对技术增长的限制（通过立法和投资策略）是导致经济增长较慢的因素之一。
语法结构分析：
- "Europe’s limits to technologic growth" - 这是主题。它表明了讨论的主要内容：欧洲对技术增长的限制。
- "through legislation and through risk-averse investmentstrategies" - 这是说明欧洲对技术增长限制方式的两个途径。它们通过立法和风险回避的投资策略来实现。
- "is one of the factors causing slower economic growth" - 这是主要论点的结论。它指出欧洲对技术增长的限制是导致经济增长缓慢的因素之一。
综合起来，这句话通过条件句引出了一个比较，然后提出了一个观点，说明了欧洲对技术增长的限制是导致其经济增长较慢的因素之一，并解释了这一观点的原因。
-未完待续-
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文章来源：reason.com
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