茶叶关税:持续的不确定性是确定的 Tea Tariffs: Continued Uncertainty a Certainty
作者：微信文章自8月1日起，将实施10%至70%的互征关税，这将延长7月9日的截止日期，并延续自美国总统唐纳德·特朗普就任以来扰乱贸易流动的不确定性。
全球两大茶叶贸易大国中仅有两个国家获得了美国关税豁免。中国和美国继续寻求达成广泛协议，此前双方已将多项重叠关税率（总计高达152.5%）下调至30%至34%的区间。
7月4日，美国政府开始通知贸易伙伴对其出口至美国的货物实施新关税。对日本和韩国的关税从10%上调至25%，以促使两国尽快完成正在进行的双边贸易谈判。日本和韩国是主要茶叶生产国。其他茶叶产地的税率范围为25%至40%，其中老挝和缅甸最高达40%。泰国（36%）、印度尼西亚（32%）、孟加拉国（35%）、柬埔寨（36%）和马来西亚（25%）等茶叶生产国拥有数千个具备出口能力的茶园。
特朗普表示，与其他10个国家的协议即将达成，其中包括与印度的“非常重大”协议。与此同时，彭博社指出，欧盟可能成为更难攻克的对象。
出口商面临供应链中断和采购策略调整。美国进口商正忙于重新定价和重新分类进口商品——更广泛的后果包括外交关系紧张、海关执法不确定性以及合规负担加重。
内布拉斯加州奥马哈市的茶叶零售批发商“茶叶史密斯”老板蒂姆·史密斯写道：“许多供应商正苦于如何吸收或转嫁关税。多家供应商已告知我们，由于政策和关税调整，我们订购的商品价格可能发生变化。这使得我们很难向客户，尤其是批发客户，明确告知他们将支付的金额。”
“因此，我们选择吸收部分关税以维持客户的稳定性并尽量减少对他们钱包的影响。然而，这会对我们的盈利能力产生负面影响。从长远来看，这种做法对大多数公司而言并不可行，”史密斯写道。
他解释称，对于交货周期较长的商品，风险尤为突出。
迫在眉睫的截止日期4月2日宣布的“互惠”关税（税率介于20%至49%之间）在宣布后不久被暂停了90天。根据《政治家》杂志的关税收入追踪器，截至6月，10%的“基准”关税已使进口商损失$969亿美元——较去年同期增长109.3%。
投资银行高盛估计，企业将把60%的关税成本转嫁给消费者。有充分证据表明，高关税导致收入显著增长，但随着贸易模式转变和企业寻求降低供应链成本，这一增长将趋于平稳。
持续的贸易谈判
5月8日，白宫宣布特朗普与英国首相基尔·斯塔默（Keir Starmer）达成了一项历史性贸易协议，该协议将为美国企业提供前所未有的英国市场准入机会，同时加强美国国家安全。
“这是一项对美国有利的协议，”特朗普表示，并预测将在90天内谈判达成90项类似的双边协议。
面对46%的关税，越南同意了一项将关税设定为20%的贸易协议。经第三国转运的货物将面临40%的关税，这将阻止中国茶农将茶叶运往越南再转运至美国。
据报道，印度即将宣布一项贸易框架。印度面临26%的茶叶互惠关税。
与日本的谈判因美国对包括茶叶在内的商品征收24%的关税而陷入僵局。日本出口的茶叶中，按价值计算，有一半运往美国。
6月30日，特朗普威胁将对日本商品的关税提高至35%。7月8日，特朗普将对日本和韩国的关税提高至25%，以迫使其谈判。
7月1日，当被问及贸易谈判进展如何时，特朗普表示：“一切进展顺利。”
库存正在减少
今年年初，美国企业相较于2024年大幅增加了商品进口量，以在特朗普提高关税前囤积产品。茶叶零售商尤其大量采购了面临最高关税地区的茶叶，尤其是中国，但此后已暂停了无法在7月初到货的订单。
“我们已经看到市场上出现产品短缺，因为进口商已削减或取消了发货，直到有更多明确信息。这种情况持续越久，供应链受到的影响就越大。如果货物到货出现延迟，延长影响可能对节日销售造成深远影响，”史密斯写道。
得克萨斯州休斯顿的QTrade Teas & Botanicals公司首席执行官曼吉夫·贾亚库马尔描述了“7月9日暂停期到期时普遍存在的焦虑情绪”。[该截止日期现已延长至8月1日。]
特朗普政府声称，更高的关税将有助于美国本土制造商。
“我们是一家美国本土的混合商和包装商，拥有美国本土的基础设施。欧洲方面表现出兴趣，他们希望与我们合作，在当地进行更多包装。每个人都在认真考虑这个问题，但由于不确定性，尚未做出任何决定，”贾亚库马尔说。
“我们建议客户对替代原产地和混合标准保持开放态度，以增强供应稳定性方面的韧性，”贾亚库马尔说。
贸易流向的转变
自20世纪50年代以来，美国关税水平因自由贸易协定而下降。根据皮尤研究中心数据，2016年所有商品的平均适用关税率为1.61%。
全球范围内，根据Macrotrends数据，贸易加权平均关税率为2.98%。
进口到美国的货物平均关税率有所不同，但2018年首次实施的关税率与2025年额外的10%基准率相结合，是自1934年以来美国最高的平均关税率。耶鲁大学预算实验室指出，整体平均有效关税率为17.8%。中国、墨西哥和加拿大面临更高的关税率，且对钢铁和铝分别征收50%的关税。
中国茶叶
中国是全球最大的茶叶生产国，根据Statista市场研究数据，2025年中国国内茶叶市场价值超过1150亿美元。2024年茶叶出口价值为14亿美元，仅占总收入的1.2%。红茶出口仅为1.71亿美元。过去三年间，茶叶出口量持续增长，同时平均单价也有所提升。
2025年4月，茶叶出口量同比下降5.1%，但累计出口量已超过2024年同期水平。在关税宣布当月，绿茶出口量较去年同期增长15.1%。根据中国海关数据，平均价格上涨3.2%至每公斤$3.58。
浙江茶叶集团的美国子公司Firsd Tea报告称，中国对美茶叶进口量大幅增长，较2024年4月增长30.1%。进口茶叶的平均价格为每公斤$5.27。4月份绿茶出口量增长38.5%，主要是为了在关税生效前提前出口，以避免37.5%的茶叶关税。
今年1月至4月，中国绿茶进口量较2024年同期增长53.6%。这一增长归因于中美贸易战，关税曾一度升至152.5%，随后中美双方在谈判长期协议以平衡贸易时，同意将关税基准率设定为30%。
美国商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克表示，中美贸易协议在两天前签署。北京方面确认了框架协议的部分内容，其中包括供应稀土的承诺，但未涉及芬太尼走私等棘手问题。目前尚未公布详细内容。
物流受阻
关税加剧了持续存在的物流挑战。航运公司正调整航线以避开受关税影响的美国西海岸港口，导致东海岸港口容量紧张。集装箱短缺和运费上涨持续存在。德鲁里全球集装箱指数在6月底为每40英尺集装箱$2,983，低于疫情高峰期但比2019年平均水平高出57%。7月初从上海运送一集装箱茶叶至洛杉矶的运费为$4,500。
以色列与伊朗的冲突导致当地运输中断，延误了货物运输，并使从印度运往伊朗和伊拉克（印度茶叶最大买家之一）的40英尺集装箱运输成本增加了$600。
海关清关的不确定性扰乱了规划。海关与边境保护局（CBP）正更严格地检查（并拒绝）混合文件，仓储拥堵也推高了成本。贸易商拆分货运并暂停合同。多周延误现已司空见惯。
纽约Huth Reynolds LLP律师事务所的助理律师石杰指出，关税相关物流成本以及重新路由和终止合同的法律后果。
“正如我们在疫情期间所观察到的，当今世界，供应链和运输链已形成一个复杂的全球网络。该系统中任何一个环节的失灵都会对市场上的充足供应水平造成下行压力，而连锁反应会显著放大直接的负面影响。当货物无法在起运地装载时，就不会有货量抵达美国港口（通常从中国港口出发的集装箱船需要四到六周时间才能通过美国海关），结果很可能是港口失业率上升和消费者面临更高价格。关税的宣布已导致从中国到美国的计划集装箱运输被取消。例如，根据Sea Intelligence的数据，5月5日至12日当周，计划运输能力的42%被取消。
“尽管目前尚无法全面评估关税的长期影响，但美国贸易代表办公室（USTR）于4月17日发布了更新的行动通知，称自2025年10月14日起，将对由中国实体拥有或运营的船舶以及中国制造的船舶征收高额港口费用，从而进一步增加物流成本。
费率从每吨$50起，到2028年4月将升至每吨$140。根据Gard的数据，中国拥有和运营的集装箱船最初将支付每集装箱$120的费用，到2028年，部分船舶的费用将升至每集装箱$250。
法律与灰色地带规避措施
进口商利用自由贸易区（FTZ）和美国保税仓库来推迟或避免关税。部分企业通过在加拿大或墨西哥进行混合生产以符合USMCA规定。经瑞士、阿联酋或马来西亚转运的货物数量正呈上升趋势。
灰色地带策略，如虚报原产地或低报货物价值，容易引发执法部门的关注。随着海关审查力度加大，合法合规虽成本高昂但至关重要。
“如果供应商试图将货物（包括茶叶）经第三国转运后再运往美国，会发生什么？”石问道。
“美国海关官员可能会检查此类货物，以确定它们是否通过第三国转运以规避更高的中国关税。如果货物被错误申报为中国原产，即使只有一件商品不符合规定，整个集装箱的货物也可能被拒收。这一过程还意味着与海关清关相关的额外时间和成本，”石写道。
茶叶供应商正大量利用加拿大仓库。原产地决定关税，但将货物储存在美国境外可带来战略优势，使茶叶企业能够推迟关税支付并优化现金流。将货物存放在海外对在美国境内的批发商具有吸引力，因为他们可以从美国境外履行客户订单。
恢复平衡
关税是一种效果难以预料的粗放工具。脱离全球化、形成对立的贸易集团、贸易战、关税升级以及非关税壁垒，在削弱世界贸易组织的同时，加剧了贸易国家间的紧张关系，这对茶叶行业而言并非利好。
麦肯锡全球研究院在其报告《在关税时代，世界能否找到平衡与信任以实现繁荣？》中指出：“世界需要新的平衡与信任基础以创造繁荣经济。”
报告进一步指出：“平衡如何影响经济繁荣的能力？外部平衡反映了健康的国内生产和贸易。内部平衡表明了可持续的财政政策。家庭平衡表明了良好的储蓄、债务管理和人力资本投资。企业平衡反映了对工资、分配利润和保留盈余的有效分配的长期导向，这些都是投资所必需的。平衡还涉及韧性和安全。韧性需要国内生产或可靠获取必需品，如药品。安全依赖于采购或生产关键商品和服务的能力，以遏制外部威胁并支持盟友。缺乏平衡会导致金融不稳定，并削弱投资于推动创新、生产力和增长所需的人力资本和物理资本的能力。”
“自[关税]公告发布以来，股价和美国国债市场波动剧烈。美国通胀预期急剧上升。消费者信心跌至2022年以来的最低水平。今年第一季度，美国经济萎缩0.3%，因企业提前进口商品且库存增加。许多分析师已上调对全球经济衰退可能性的预测，”麦肯锡公司写道。
如今似乎是全球经济领袖们倒一杯安神茶的好时机。
随着8月1日关税截止日期的新延期临近，全球茶叶行业正陷入地缘政治、经济不确定性和脆弱供应链的漩涡之中。出口商面临不断攀升的合规成本，进口商则在价格波动中挣扎，消费者可能很快面临更高的价格或空荡荡的货架。最初旨在重新平衡贸易的战术举措，已演变为价值链各环节企业——从美国中西部的小型茶馆到跨洲运营的跨国包装商——面临的持久且不可预测的耐力考验。尽管部分企业可通过回流、重新调配或调整路线适应变化，但不确定性的累积成本正变得愈发难以承受。
作为跨境合作与文化交流典范的茶叶贸易，如今正面临被关税壁垒和国家利益重新划分的风险。在缺乏协调一致、基于规则的解决方案的情况下，该行业必须做好应对长期不稳定的准备。在这样的时代，对战略远见、韧性物流和透明政策制定的需求比以往任何时候都更为迫切。
在清晰度恢复之前，不确定性——如同茶壶中的茶叶——将继续冲泡。
===篇幅很长，机翻可能存在偏差，为了更多中文粉丝考虑，见谅===
Reciprocal tariffs ranging from 10% to 70% will be enforced Aug. 1, extending a July 9 deadline and uncertainty that has disrupted trade flow since U.S. President Donald Trump took office.
Only two of the world’s leading tea-trading nations have secured U.S. tariff relief. China and the U.S. continue to seek a broad agreement after having lowered multiple, overlapping rates totaling a punishing 152.5% rate on tea to a range of between 30% and 34%.
On July 4, the administration began notifying trading partners of new tariffs on their exports to the U.S. Tariffs on Japan and South Korea were increased from 10% to 25% to encourage each country to conclude ongoing bilateral trade negotiations. Japan and South Korea are major tea producers. Rates for other tea lands ranged from 25% to a high of 40% for Laos and Myanmar. Tea producers Thailand (36%), Indonesia (32%), Bangladesh (35%), Cambodia (36%), and Malaysia 25% collectively have thousands of tea estates with export capacity.
Deals with 10 other countries are imminent, including a “very big” one with India, said Trump. Meanwhile, the EU may prove a harder nut to crack, writes Bloomberg.
Exporters face disrupted supply chains and shifting sourcing strategies. U.S. importers scramble to re-price and reclassify imports—the broader consequence: strained diplomatic ties, unpredictable customs enforcement, and mounting compliance burdens.
The Tea Smith retail-wholesale owner, Tim Smith, in Omaha, Neb., writes that “many suppliers are struggling with how to absorb or pass along tariffs. Several have informed us that the prices of items we have on order may change as a result of policy and tariff adjustments. This makes it quite difficult for us to let our customers, especially wholesale customers, know what they will be paying.”
“As a result, we have elected to absorb some of the tariffs to maintain stability for our customers and to help minimize the impact on their pocketbooks. Consequently, this has a negative impact on our profitability. In the long run, that approach is not viable for most companies,” writes Smith.
The risk is particularly difficult for items with long lead times, he explains.
Looming Deadline Enforcing “reciprocal” tariffs ranging from 20% to 49% was suspended for 90 days shortly after they were announced on April 2. A 10% “baseline” tariff has so far cost importers $96.9 billion through June — 109.3% more than at the same time last year, according to Politico’s tariff income tracker.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs estimates that companies will pass along 60% of their tariff costs onto consumers. There is strong evidence that high levies caused a significant surge in revenue, which will later level off as trade patterns shift and businesses seek to lower costs along their supply chains.
Ongoing Trade Negotiations
On May 8, the White House announced that Trump and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer had unveiled a historic trade deal, providing American companies with unprecedented access to the UK market while strengthening U.S. national security.
“This is a great deal for America,” said Trump, who predicted 90 similar bilateral agreements would be negotiated in 90 days.
Facing 46% duties, Vietnam agreed to a trade deal that sets tariffs at 20%. Trans-shipments from third countries would face a 40% levy, which would discourage Chinese tea growers from transporting their tea to Vietnam before shipping it to the U.S.
India is reportedly on the verge of announcing a trade framework. India faces 26% reciprocal duties on tea.
Talks with Japan have stalled over the imposition of 24% US duties on goods, including tea. Half of the tea exported by Japan, by value, is shipped to the U.S.
On June 30, Trump threatened to increase tariffs to 35% on Japanese goods. And on July 8, Trump raised tariffs on Japan and South Korea to 25% to force them to negotiate.
When asked how trade talks are faring on July 1, Trump said: “Everything’s going well.”
Inventories Are Thinning
U.S. companies imported a lot more goods earlier this year compared to 2024 in a rush to stockpile products before Trump raised tariffs. Tea retailers in particular stocked up on tea from regions facing the highest tariffs, notably China, but have since halted orders that could not be landed by early July.
“We are already seeing product shortages in the market as importers have cut back or eliminated shipments until more clarity is provided. The longer this goes on, the more impact will be noted in the supply chain. Extended effects may deeply impact holiday sales if there are lags in shipments arriving,” writes Smith. CEO Manjiv Jayakumar, who runs QTrade Teas & Botanicals in Houston, Tex., describes “lots of anxiety around July 9 when the suspension expires.” The Trump Administration asserts that higher tariffs will assist U.S.-based manufacturers.
“We are a U.S.-based blender and packer with U.S.-based infrastructure. There is interest from Europe. They want to work with us to do more packing locally. Everybody is thinking about it seriously for the first time, but no decisions have been made yet due to uncertainty,” said Jayakumar.
“We are advising clients to remain open-minded about alternative origins and blend standards to make them more resilient from a supply stability perspective,” says Jayakumar.Shifting Trade Flows
Since the 1950s, U.S. tariffs have declined in favor of free-trade agreements. In 2016, the average applied tariff across all products was 1.61% according to the Pew Research Center.
Globally, the trade-weighted average tariff was 2.98% according to Macrotrends.
The average tariff rate on goods imported into the U.S. varies, but the combination of rates first imposed in 2018 and the additional 10% baseline rate in 2025 is the highest U.S. average since 1934. The Budget Lab at Yale indicated an overall average effective tariff rate of 17.8%. China, Mexico, and Canada face higher rates, and there are separate 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum.
China Tea China is the world’s largest tea producer, with a domestic tea market valued at over $115 billion in 2025, according to Statista market research. Tea exports were valued at $1.4 billion in 2024, representing only 1.2% of total revenue. Black tea exports were only $171 million. Tea export volume has increased over the past three years, accompanied by a rise in the average unit value.
In April 2025, tea volume decreased by 5.1%, but year-to-date totals surpassed those of 2024. The volume of green tea exports in the month the tariffs were announced was up 15.1% compared to the same period last year. Average prices increased 3.2% to $3.58 per kilo, according to China Customs.
Zhejiang Tea Group’s US subsidiary, Firsd Tea, reported a steep increase in Chinese imports to the US, up 30.1% compared to April 2024. The average price for imported tea was $5.27 per kilogram. Green tea volume increased by 38.5% in April due to front-loading to avoid a 37.5% tariff on tea.
Year-to-date (Jan through April) imports of Chinese green tea are up 53.6% compared to 2024. The increase is attributed to a trade war between the US and China, which drove tariffs to 152.5% at one point before the U.S. and China agreed to a 30% base rate while negotiating a long-term agreement to balance trade.
The on-off-on-again US-China trade deal was signed two days ago, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said. Beijing confirmed some aspects of a framework accord, which includes a pledge to deliver rare earths but doesn’t address thorny issues like fentanyl trafficking. There was no detailed readout.
Logistics Impaired
Tariffs compound ongoing logistics challenges. Shipping lines are rerouting vessels to avoid U.S. West Coast ports affected by tariffs, straining capacity on the East Coast. Container shortages and higher freight costs persist. The Drewry World Container Index was $2,983 per 40ft container in the last week of June, below pandemic highs but 57% higher than the average in 2019. The early July rate for shipping a container of tea from Shanghai to Los Angeles was $4,500.
The Israeli-Iranian war caused local disruptions, delaying shipments and adding $600 to the cost of a 40ft container for transit from India to Iran and from India to Iraq, one of the largest buyers of Indian tea.
Customs clearance uncertainty has destabilized planning. Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) is more aggressively inspecting (and rejecting) blended Documentation burdens, and warehousing congestion raises costs. Traders split shipments and suspend contracts. Multi-week delays are now common.
Jie Shi, an Associate at Huth Reynolds LLP in New York, identified several tariff-related logistical costs, as well as the legal ramifications of rerouting and terminating contracts.
“As we observed during the pandemic years, in today’s world, supply and transport chains form a complex global network. A dysfunction in any single part of this system puts downward pressure on adequate supply levels in the market, and the ripple effects significantly amplify the direct adverse impacts. When cargo cannot be loaded at the origin, no volume arrives at U.S. ports (it usually takes four to six weeks for container ships leaving Chinese ports to clear U.S. customs), and the result is likely job losses at ports and higher prices for consumers. The announcement of tariffs has already led to the cancellation of scheduled container shipments from China to the US. For example, according to Sea Intelligence, 42% of planned shipping capacity was canceled for the week from May 5 to 12.
“Although no one can fully assess the long-term ramifications of the tariffs, the United States Trade Representative (USTR) issued an updated notice of action on April 17, stating that starting October 14, 2025, high port fees will be imposed on vessels owned or operated by Chinese entities and Chinese-built vessels, thereby adding further to logistics costs.
Rates start at $50 per ton and increase to $140 per ton by April 2028. Chinese-owned and operated container ships will initially pay $120 per container, a fee that rises to $250 per container by 2028 for some vessels, according to Gard. Legal and Grey-Area Workarounds Importers use free-trade zones (FTZs) and bonded U.S. warehouses to defer or avoid tariffs. Some are blending in Canada or Mexico to qualify under USMCA. Transshipments via Switzerland, the UAE, or Malaysia are on the rise.
Grey-area tactics, such as mislabeling origins or undervaluing shipments, attract enforcement. Legal compliance is costly but critical as customs scrutiny rises.
“What happens if suppliers attempt to reroute cargo, including tea, through third countries before sending it to the U.S.?” asks Shi.
“U.S. customs officials are likely to check such shipments to see if they have been transshipped from China via third countries to bypass the higher Chinese tariffs. Shipments misdeclared as being of Chinese origin, even if just one item is non-compliant, can result in a full container load being turned away. This process also means that there will be additional time and costs related to customs clearance,” writes Shi.
Tea suppliers are heavily utilizing Canadian warehouses. The country of origin determines tariffs, but warehousing goods outside the US offers a strategic advantage, allowing tea businesses to delay tariff payments and optimize their cash flow. Landing goods offshore appeals to U.S.-based wholesalers who fulfill customer orders outside the U.S.
Restoring Balance Tariffs are a blunt tool with unpredictable results. De-globalization into opposing trade blocs, trade wars, escalating tariffs, and non-tariff barriers, while weakening the World Trade Organization, has increased tensions among trading nations, which bodes poorly for the tea industry.
McKinsey Global Institute argues in its report, "In a moment of tariffs, can the world find balance and trust to thrive?", “The world needs a new base of balance and trust to create a thriving economy.”
The report goes on to say, "How does balance affect the ability of an economy to thrive? External balance reflects healthy domestic production and trade. Internal balance signals sustainable fiscal policies. Household balance indicates sound saving, debt management, and human capital investment. Corporate balance reflects a long-term orientation to the effective allocation of wages, distributed profits, and retained earnings needed for investment. Balance also entails resilience and security. Resilience requires domestic production or reliable access to essential goods, such as pharmaceuticals. Security relies on the capacity to procure or produce the critical goods and services needed to deter external threats and support allies. Lack of balance risks financial instability and degrades the capacity to invest in the human and physical capital required to drive innovation, productivity, and growth.”
“In the weeks since the announcements, share prices and the US Treasury market have gyrated. Expectations of US inflation have spiked. Consumer confidence has plummeted back to lows last seen in 2022. In the first quarter, the US economy shrank by 0.3 percent, as companies pulled forward imports and inventories grew. Many analysts have raised their estimates of the probability of a global recession,” writes McKinsey & Company.
Now seems a good time for the world’s economic leaders to pour a calming cup of tea.
As the newly extended August 1 tariff deadline approaches, the global tea industry finds itself caught in a crosscurrent of geopolitics, economic uncertainty, and fragile supply chains. Exporters face escalating compliance costs, importers wrestle with pricing volatility, and consumers may soon confront steeper prices or empty shelves. What began as a tactical effort to rebalance trade has become a protracted, unpredictable test of endurance for businesses across the value chain—from small tea rooms in the Midwest to multinational packers operating on multiple continents. While some may adapt through reshoring, re-blending, or rerouting, the cumulative cost of uncertainty is becoming harder to absorb.
The tea trade, historically a model of cross-border collaboration and cultural exchange, now risks being remapped by tariff walls and national interests. In the absence of a coordinated, rules-based resolution, the industry must brace for prolonged instability. In such times, the need for strategic foresight, resilient logistics, and transparent policymaking is greater than ever.
Until clarity returns, uncertainty—like tea in the pot—will continue to steep.
页:
[1]