特朗普扭转了关税战局势,他正在获胜!
作者：微信文章President Donald Trump has pulled off an impressive feat: He is raising tariffs on some of America’s most important trading partners, and the world is largely cheering the agreements as victories.
唐纳德·特朗普总统完成了一项令人印象深刻的壮举：他对美国一些最重要的贸易伙伴提高了关税，而全世界却基本上将这些协议视为胜利并为之喝彩。
Placing historically high taxes on imports from around the world — particularly at a time when American consumers are still reeling from the highest inflation they’ve experienced in four decades — marked one of Trump’s boldest gambles of his presidency. Trump was largely elected on his pledge to fix Americans’ finances. Economists have widely shunned his trade policy, which is expected to raise costs for businesses and consumers.
在美国消费者仍在应对四十年来最高通胀的背景下，对全球进口商品征收历史性高税率，标志着特朗普总统任期内最大胆的赌博之一。特朗普当初当选很大程度上是因为承诺改善美国人的经济状况。然而，经济学家普遍回避他的贸易政策，因为该政策预计将提高企业和消费者的成本。
But Trump zagged when everyone was zigging, and — so far — the bet has paid off. He achieved that with some old-fashioned psychology: setting the bar so high for potential tariff pain that anything that has come below that bar appears like a win.
然而，特朗普在所有人都朝一个方向走时选择反向而行——目前为止，这个赌博看似奏效了。他靠的是一种“老派心理战术”：把预期的关税痛点设得非常高，以至于任何低于这个预期线的结果都显得像是一种胜利。
Trump “always has a plan, but it’s not always obvious,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg Television Wednesday morning.
财政部长斯科特·贝森特周三早上在接受彭博电视采访时表示：“特朗普总是有计划的，只是未必一眼能看出来。”
For example, Trump had threatened Japan with a 25% tariff earlier this month when negotiations stalled. But late Tuesday, a trade agreement between the two nations was announced, including a tariff rate of 15% on Japanese goods imported into the United States. US markets got a healthy bounce higher Wednesday. Japan’s markets took off like a rocket.
例如，在本月早些时候谈判陷入僵局时，特朗普曾威胁对日本征收 25%的关税。但在周二晚间，两国宣布达成了一项贸易协议，其中包括对日本进口商品征收 15%的关税。周三，美国股市强劲反弹，日本市场则像火箭一样飙升。
But 15% is more than the 10% that US importers have been paying for Japanese exports since April, when Trump first rolled out his so-called reciprocal tariffs on trading partners — and much more than what the Japanese were paying before Trump took office.
不过，15%仍高于自 4月以来美国进口商为日本商品所支付的 10%关税——那是特朗普首次推出所谓“对等关税”的时候——也远高于特朗普上任前日本面对的关税水平。
The victory, some analysts say, is the certainty that the trade agreements provide investors, consumers and businesses.
一些分析人士表示，所谓的胜利在于这些贸易协议为投资者、消费者和企业提供了确定性。
“The positive is that hopefully we’re coming to the end of all the tariff cloudiness in terms of what the ultimate rates will be so businesses can plan around them,” said Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of One Point BFG Wealth Partners, in a note to investors Wednesday morning. Boockvar, however, acknowledged this is “a bizarre political and economic theory world we now live in.”
“好消息是，我们可能正在走出关税政策的不确定期，希望最终税率将明确下来，这样企业就能据此制定计划，”One Point BFG财富合伙公司首席投资官彼得·布克瓦周三早上在给投资者的说明中表示。但他也承认，我们如今生活在一个“政治和经济理论极其古怪的世界里”。
The trade war is far from complete, and the long-term implications of Trump’s decisions could yet be damaging — economically and politically. But, in the near term, Trump appears to be winning.
贸易战远未结束，特朗普的决策在经济和政治上的长期影响仍可能是有害的。但从短期来看，特朗普似乎正在获胜。
That tide began to turn on April 9, when Trump paused for 90 days his “Liberation Day” tariffs announced a week earlier that had sent the stock market plunging and briefly entering bear market territory. The bond market had also begun to show signs that it might break — until Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent guided Trump away from his harshest tariff levels.
这种趋势始于4月9日，当时特朗普宣布暂停此前一周推出的“解放日”关税90天——该政策曾导致股市大跌，短暂进入熊市区域。债市也开始显现崩溃迹象，直到财政部长贝森特劝阻特朗普避免实施最严厉的关税措施。
Markets have rallied from that point on, and consumer sentiment — which sank near all-time lows — has rebounded.
从那时起，市场出现反弹，消费者信心也从接近历史最低点的水平回升。
A trade agreement with the UK, a slew of announcements Tuesday on trade, from Indonesia to the Philippines and then Japan also provided much-needed doses of certainty.
与英国达成的贸易协，以及周二关于印尼、菲律宾再到日本等国的一连串贸易公告，也为市场注入了急需的确定性。
Trump has also used tariffs, deals and threats as a way to give US industry a boost. He has fought hard against so-called non-tariff barriers, including digital services taxes, which the administration believes put undue pressure on the American tech industry.
特朗普还通过关税、协议与威胁来为美国工业提供支持。他大力反对所谓的“非关税壁垒”，包括数字服务税，美国政府认为这些政策对美国科技行业施加了不合理的压力。
For example, late last month, Trump railed against Canada for imposing a tax on online companies and threatened to end trade talks. Trump also said he would set a new tariff for Canada by the end of this week. Days later, Canada backed down and dropped the tax.
例如，在上月底，特朗普猛烈抨击加拿大对在线公司征税，并威胁终止贸易谈判。他还表示将在本周末前对加拿大设定新关税。几天后，加拿大让步并取消了该税收。
Trump worked to include opening US exports to foreign countries as part of his trade agreements, too, including beef to the United Kingdom, rice and cars to Japan, and various items to Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines.
特朗普还努力将开放美国出口纳入其贸易协议中，例如对英国出口牛肉，对日本出口大米和汽车，以及对越南、印尼和菲律宾出口各类商品。
Victory isn’t certain
胜利尚未确定
However, it’s not clear Trump can claim victory on trade just yet. At least dozens of trading partners are expected to get higher tariffs set at the end of next week, and Trump has floated raising the 10% universal tariff he imposed on April 2 to 15% or 20%.
然而，特朗普现在还无法完全宣称在贸易上获胜。至少几十个贸易伙伴预计将在下周末前被加征更高关税，而特朗普也在考虑将他在4月2日实施的10%通用关税提高到15%或20%。
The European Union, another major US trading partner, has found a trade agreement elusive, and tariffs could surge on both sides of the Atlantic as a result.
另一个重要的美国贸易伙伴欧盟尚未与美方达成协议，这可能导致大西洋两岸的关税大幅上升。
The US and global economies have largely been able to withstand Trump’s tariffs over the past several months, but it’s not clear that they can if those rates go higher — particularly as US importers work through warehoused inventories of goods that were brought in to the United States before tariffs were put in place.
过去几个月，美国和全球经济基本能够承受特朗普的关税冲击，但如果税率进一步提高，能否继续承受仍是未知数——尤其是当美国进口商消化完在关税生效前囤积的库存之后。
“It remains too early to fully understand the longer-term implications, especially with another round of new tariff developments expected in August,” said Lynn Song, ING’s chief economist, said in a note to clients Wednesday morning.
“要全面理解这些政策的长期影响还为时过早，特别是8月还将有新一轮关税政策出台，”ING经济学家宋琳周三早上在给客户的说明中表示。
Inflation is starting to creep higher. Business sentiment is improving, but earnings and growth expectations remain pretty stagnant. Consumer sentiment is on the upswing but still comparatively low to where it was before Trump started putting tariffs in place. The job market is showing some cracks.
通胀开始缓慢上升。商业信心有所改善，但盈利和增长预期依然停滞。消费者信心虽然回升，但仍明显低于特朗普开始征税之前的水平。就业市场也开始出现裂痕。
As a result, the US dollar continues to sink sharply, in a sign of concern about potential US economic weakness to come. US and Japanese bonds sold off Wednesday, too.
因此，美元持续大幅下跌，反映出市场对美国经济潜在疲软的担忧。美日债券周三也遭遇抛售。
That’s the market’s way of waying the certainty of the present could quickly turn into more tumult in the future.
这是市场对当前确定性可能迅速转变为未来动荡的一种反应。
来自 cnn。原文标题：How Trump turned the tide in his trade war
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