#社会 美国在亚洲再挥“关税大棒”:韩国对15%关税妥协,对中国影响如何?@林禹
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当地时间7月31日，特朗普政府宣布与韩国达成贸易协议，将对韩征收15%关税。韩国成为继日本、印尼和菲律宾等国后，又一个在“关税风暴”中与美达成协议的亚洲国家。根据协议，韩国将对美投资3500亿美元，其中90%的利润将由美国人民享有。韩国总统李在明称，这笔投资中的1500亿美元将作为韩美造船合作专用资金。而中国正是造船业的全球领跑者。美韩达成贸易协议，背后隐藏着怎样的博弈逻辑？在亚洲贸易格局剧变的当下，这对中美的贸易角力又有什么影响？
本篇课程首发于2025年8月4日
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中英文对照版
South Korea Reaches Trade Deal With Trump
韩国与特朗普达成贸易协议
By Lydia DePillis and Choe Sang-Hun
❶President Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea on Wednesday, putting 15 percent tariffs on South Korean goods, much higher than they were just a few months ago but lower than Mr. Trump had threatened.
上周三，特朗普总统宣布与韩国达成一项贸易协议，对韩国产品征收15%的关税，这一税率虽远高于数月之前，但低于特朗普此前威胁的水平。
❷Under the terms, South Korea will make $350 billion in investments in the United States and purchase $100 billion of liquefied natural gas. Mr. Trump said in a social media post that South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, would visit Washington in two weeks to make further announcements.
根据协议内容，韩国将向美国投资3500亿美元，并采购价值1000亿美元的液化天然气。特朗普在社交媒体上表示，韩国总统李在明（Lee Jae Myung）将在两周内访问华盛顿，届时将发布更多声明。
❸The agreement follows other trade deals that have been concluded in Asia. Although many details remain to be hammered out, the White House has announced that goods from Japan and the European Union will face 15 percent tariffs, the Philippines and Indonesia 19 percent, and Vietnam 20 percent.
这项协议是在亚洲多项贸易协定陆续达成的背景下出现的。尽管许多细节仍待敲定，白宫已宣布：来自日本和欧盟的商品将被征收15%关税，菲律宾和印度尼西亚为19%，越南为20%。
❹Of the $350 billion that South Korea has pledged to invest in the United States, $150 billion will be dedicated to helping South Korean companies entering the American shipbuilding industry.
在韩国承诺的3500亿美元投资中，将有1500亿美元专门用于协助韩国企业进入美国造船业。
❺"There aren't that many countries that can restore the shipbuilding capacity of the U.S., particularly given that China is a strategic rival," said Seungjoo Lee, a professor of political science and international relations at Chung-Ang University in Seoul. "That's why the United States and Japan included cooperation on shipbuilding in the agreement, and in terms of capacity, South Korea is in a better position."
“能够帮助恢复美国造船能力的国家并不多，尤其考虑到中国是战略竞争对手，”首尔中央大学政治学与国际关系教授李承周（Seungjoo Lee）表示。“这也是为什么美日也将造船合作纳入协议中，而就产能而言，韩国的条件更具优势。”
❻South Korea ran a trade surplus of $66 billion with the United States in 2024, nearly four times what it was in 2018, when Mr. Trump revised the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement. In his announcement, Mr. Trump said that South Korea "will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc."
2024年，韩国对美贸易顺差达660亿美元，几乎是2018年特朗普修订《美韩自由贸易协定》时的四倍。在声明中，特朗普表示，韩国“将对美国完全开放贸易，接受包括汽车、卡车、农产品等在内的美国产品”。
内容拓展
美国关税谈判策略“锚定效应 anchoring effect”：
美方一般先抛出一个极高的关税迫使对家来谈，然后谈出一个低得多、但依然比以前高的关税税率。这便是锚定效应——给出极端初始报价，然后再让步，实际还是获利方。这种策略在民间也被称作“漫天要价，坐地还钱”。
如果知道自己在谈判中筹码有限，继续拖下去可能带来更大的风险，一般会采取止损策略（stop-loss strategy），即“锁定损失，落袋为安”。
生词好句
1.reach a deal 达成协议
同义表达：conclude an agreement; strike a deal（口语）
conclude v. 正式完成
2.tariff 英 [ˈtærɪf] 美 [ˈtærɪf] n. 关税
tariff barrier 关税壁垒
Tariff barriers were one of the main causes of the economic disasters and wars in the 1930s.关税壁垒是导致上世纪30年代经济灾难和战争的重要原因之一。
non-tariff barrier 非关税壁垒
3.make + 金额 + in investment 进行一定金额的投资
4.liquefied natural gas 液化天然气（LNG）
liquefy v. 使......液化
The heat will liquefy the frozen soup.热量会让冻起来的汤变成液体。
The snow began to liquefy under the spring sun. 雪在春日暖阳下开始消融。
5.make announcement 发布声明（正式用语）
In 2025, this AI company made $1 billion investment in quantum computing and made announcements about it.2025年，这家人工智能公司在量子计算领域投资了10亿美元，并发布了相关公告。
6.hammer out 把（复杂方案）最终敲定
hammer n. 大锤
The Ministry of Commerce and the AI chip industry finally hammered out an agreement on export restrictions.商务部与AI芯片行业最终敲定了出口限制协议。
7.pledge 英 美 v. 郑重承诺
The university pledged to achieve carbon neutrality by 2030.这所大学郑重承诺到2030年实现碳中和。
8.be dedicated to… （本文）专款专用；致力于
The funding is dedicated to improving children's education in rural areas. 这笔资金将专门用于改善农村地区儿童的教育。
9.shipbuilding capacity 造船能力（单位时间内可以造多少船）
capacity n. 产能（制造业领域）；工作承载力（职场词汇）
I'm already at full capacity this month, so I won't be able to take on any new projects.我这个月已经排满了，没有能力再接新项目了。
10.strategic rival 战略竞争对手
同义表达：systematic rival 系统性竞争对手（指在规则制定、全球产业链、高端制造、高新技术，地缘安全等多个维度进行长期系统性的全面竞争）
11.in terms of 就……而言
12.trade surplus 贸易顺差（指的是一个国家出口大于进口时的状态）
surplus n. 盈余
trade deficit 贸易逆差
deficit n. 赤字
A trade surplus or deficit is not necessarily good or bad — both are common in global trade. 贸易顺差或逆差不一定是好的或者坏的——两者在全球贸易中都很常见。
13.revise 英 美 v. 修订（比edit更正式、更系统）
revise a dictionary 修订词典
revise a legislation 修改法规
英文原文
South Korea Reaches Trade Deal With Trump
By Lydia DePillis and Choe Sang-Hun
@The New York TimesJuly 31, 2025
President Trump announced a trade deal with South Korea on Wednesday, putting 15 percent tariffs on South Korean goods, much higher than they were just a few months ago but lower than Mr. Trump had threatened.
Under the terms, South Korea will make $350 billion in investments in the United States and purchase $100 billion of liquefied natural gas. Mr. Trump said in a social media post that South Korea's president, Lee Jae Myung, would visit Washington in two weeks to make further announcements.
Mr. Trump had threatened to impose 25 percent tariffs on South Korea unless a deal was reached by Friday. In an important concession from Mr. Trump, South Korea's car exports will face 15 percent tariffs, down from the rate of 25 percent that the president had already imposed on cars from most of the world.
The agreement follows other trade deals that have been concluded in Asia. Although many details remain to be hammered out, the White House has announced that goods from Japan and the European Union will face 15 percent tariffs, the Philippines and Indonesia 19 percent, and Vietnam 20 percent.
India, a key American ally, is also without a deal, and Mr. Trump threatened it on Wednesday with a 25 percent tariff. The Trump administration and China have agreed to a truce after inflicting sharp trade penalties on each other in the spring.
Mr. Lee confirmed that South Korea had reached a trade deal with the United States. The deal "removes uncertainty" over the country's export industries, he said in a social media post.
Of the $350 billion that South Korea has pledged to invest in the United States, Mr. Lee said, $150 billion will be dedicated to helping South Korean companies entering the American shipbuilding industry.
"There aren't that many countries that can restore the shipbuilding capacity of the U.S., particularly given that China is a strategic rival," said Seungjoo Lee, a professor of political science and international relations at Chung-Ang University in Seoul. "That's why the United States and Japan included cooperation on shipbuilding in the agreement, and in terms of capacity, South Korea is in a better position."
The rest of the funds will be used to help South Korea invest in the semiconductor, technology and energy sectors in the United States. Kim Yong-beom, the chief policy coordinator in Mr. Lee's office, said that South Korea had pushed for a 12.5 percent tariff "until the very end" but that Mr. Trump had not budged. "The president said everyone is 15 percent," he said at a news conference.
It has been a long road for the South Koreans, who had to restart U.S. trade talks when a new government was elected in June. Mr. Lee, five weeks into the job, received a reprieve when Mr. Trump extended his original July 9 deadline for a deal to Aug. 1.
However, the country's negotiators had to compete for time with Trump administration officials who were attempting to conclude dozens of agreements at once on difficult issues such as market access for agricultural goods.
Howard Lutnick, the U.S. commerce secretary, said in a social media post that tariffs on South Korean automobiles would be set at 15 percent, a rate that matches the levy recently set on cars from Japan and the European Union.
He also said South Korea would "not be treated any worse than any other country on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals." He said U.S. tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and copper would remain unchanged.
South Korea's two semiconductor giants, SK Hynix and Samsung, have built factories in the United States with the help of subsidies granted under former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Some other large South Korean manufacturing investments have seen declining prospects after Congress canceled electric vehicle subsidies. Mr. Lee had met recently with the leaders of several of his country's largest companies about what they could bring to the table. Executives from Hyundai, Samsung and Hanwha were in Washington this week, South Korean news outlets reported.
Tami Overby, a partner at DGA Group Government Relations who previously served as president of the American Chamber of Commerce in Korea, said the promised new investment was a concession to the reality that tariffs would make goods shipped from South Korea less competitive in the American market.
"I don't think they have a choice," Ms. Overby said. "I don't think any country has a choice. This is how the president has decided to do it, and you either get on board or you pay higher tariffs."
South Korea's economy is extremely dependent on exports of goods and services, which accounted for 44 percent of its economic output in 2023. That's twice the rate of its neighbor Japan, another export-driven economy. South Korea ran a trade surplus of $66 billion with the United States in 2024, nearly four times what it was in 2018, when Mr. Trump revised the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement.
The U.S. auto tariffs, previously set at 25 percent for nearly all imported vehicles, have eaten into the sales of major South Korean car brands. Profits at Hyundai dropped 16 percent in the second quarter from the previous year, as it has largely absorbed the cost of the duties so far.
U.S. officials have been pushing South Korea to balance trade with the United States, open its market to U.S. exports and walk back proposed digital regulations that are seen as benefiting South Korean giants over American tech firms. Mr. Trump did not mention anything about digital services.
In his announcement, Mr. Trump said that the $350 billion investment from South Korea would be "owned and controlled by the United States, and selected by myself, as President," and that South Korea "will be completely OPEN TO TRADE with the United States, and that they will accept American product including Cars and Trucks, Agriculture, etc."
But Mr. Kim, the government policy official, said the countries had not agreed to any changes to South Korea's rules about agriculture imports, particularly beef and rice.
Farming is politically sensitive in South Korea, and the government recently said it would draw a "red line" and remove the country's beef and rice markets as a possible concession in trade talks.
South Korea is the largest foreign market for U.S. beef, but the American cattle industry had demanded that the country lift its import restrictions on beef over 30 months old, which South Korea has banned since 2008 over concerns that it could introduce mad cow disease.
Some of the issues between the allies, such as sharing defense costs, were not included in the deal, according to the South Korean government. The agreement was confined to trade issues, it said. Those other issues are expected to be discussed when the two presidents meet in the coming weeks.
Mr. Trump, who called South Korea a "money machine" last year, has spoken about using trade negotiations as a forum for asking the country to cover more of the costs of maintaining the American military presence there, which includes approximately 28,500 troops.
2025©The New York Times
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