58双语新闻 | 加拿大经济对美国关税表现出弹性;草原野火烟雾可能导致加拿大各地出现阴霾天气【共三项新闻内容】
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2024/8/04
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01
加拿大经济对美国关税表现出弹性
加拿大央行行长蒂夫-马克莱姆上周用“一定的韧性”来形容加拿大经济在美国关税重压下的表现。
仅仅几天之后，美国总统唐纳德-特朗普（Donald Trump）又对加拿大商品加征了35%的关税。
随着过去几个月关税的累加，经济学家们表示，加拿大的经济开始出现裂痕，但几乎没有崩溃的迹象。
道明银行（TD Bank）经济学家马克-埃尔科劳（Marc Ercolao）承认，看到加拿大经济在加拿大最大贸易伙伴的大规模破坏下依然坚挺，有点意外。
"许多个月前，我们和其他经济预测者都认为加拿大经济会更加疲软。很明显，现在并没有出现这种情况，"他在接受采访时说。“我们正在避免最坏的情况”。
关税对经济有何影响？
本周四，加拿大统计局公布了今年第二季度的经济情况，当时许多关税已经全面生效。
虽然该机构认为 4 月和 5 月各行业的实际国内生产总值出现了几次小幅收缩，但其初步估计显示 6 月经济有所反弹。
统计局称，如果这些早期数据属实，那么本季度总体增长持平就足够了。
其中一些结果因波动而失真，例如，企业急于抢在关税之前在第一季度推动了经济活动，而这在第二季度让位于疲软。
埃尔科拉奥说，现在还很难确定关税带来的确切影响，但一个大趋势正在形成。
他说：在过去六个月左右的时间里，我们可以说经济活动在某种程度上趋于平稳。
服务业相对较好，但 Ercolao 说，制造业和运输业等出口重工业首当其冲。
为了缓解部分行业的疲软，联邦政府宣布了各种支持受关税影响的工人的计划，以及加快国防和基础设施支出的更广泛计划。
马克莱姆在周三的新闻发布会上指出，商业和消费者信心仍然较低，但根据央行最近的调查，情况已经有所改善。
虽然一些受贸易影响的行业面临失业，失业率总体呈上升趋势，达到近7%，但其他经济领域的雇主仍在继续扩大其薪资规模。
“消费仍在增长，”Macklem 说。"增长幅度不大。当然，关税带来的不确定性抑制了消费的增长。但消费仍在增长，我们预计这种情况将持续到第三和第四季度。
加拿大会陷入衰退吗？
上周，加拿大央行连续第三次决定将政策利率维持在 2.75% 不变。
埃尔科劳认为，如果央行对加拿大经济抵御美国关税的能力感到恐慌，很可能会降低利率。
过去一周的国内生产总值（GDP）数据良好，足以让蒙特利尔银行（BMO）将其对第三季度的展望上调至积极区域。该银行的预测人员现在预计，加拿大今年将避免出现技术性衰退。
蒙特利尔银行首席经济学家道格-波特（Doug Porter）在周五给客户的一份说明中说，渥太华在本月初实施的个人减税政策，以及贸易战中强劲的国内旅游需求，都将推动本季度的经济发展，而围绕经济预测的 “不那么悲观的情绪 ”也将如此。
其他一些预测者则继续将关税引发的经济衰退写入他们的展望中。
在与利率决议同时发布的加拿大央行货币政策报告中，加拿大央行概述了假设关税形势基本维持现状的一种经济情景。
在这种情况下，加拿大避免了经济衰退。2025 年和 2026 年的经济增长总体保持正增长，但比没有关税影响的情况下低半个百分点。
马克莱姆告诉记者，加拿大央行预计，即使在今天的关税实施情况下，经济仍将保持增长，“但将是在一个永久性的较低路径上”。
他说：不幸的是，关税意味着经济运行的效率会降低，这是一个可悲的现实。
那么新的关税呢？
波特在他的说明中说，美国新的 35% 关税对加拿大经济的实际影响可能小于标题数字所显示的。
由于加拿大出口商品符合 CUSMA 的例外规定，BMO 认为在新关税下，美国的实际关税税率约为 7%，比周五之前的税率高出不到一个百分点。
但由于《美国与加拿大关于在华进出口商品的贸易协定》将于2026年重新谈判，波特表示，35%的关税税率可能会成为谈判的 “砝码”，如果贸易协定到期而新协议尚未达成，该税率将全面生效。
加拿大央行本周公布了另一种 “升级 ”情景，即美国在提高全球关税的同时取消加拿大的 CUSMA 豁免。
在这种更严重的情况下，到2027年，实际国内生产总值将额外下降1.25%；波特说，这种结果 “肯定是严重的，但远非灾难性的”。
埃尔科拉奥说，今年早些时候的关税厄运与进口关税的征收速度息息相关。
但他说，迄今为止，美国贸易限制措施的反复无常给了企业适应新经营方式的时间，也不断拖延了实施时间。
“如果我们回到特朗普开始担任总统的时候，如果他立即百分之百地实施他的关税计划，我们很可能会看到经济深度萎缩，因为这太突然了，”埃尔科拉奥解释说。
“现在，我们已经获得了时间，至少可以尝试减轻这些关税预计会对加拿大经济造成的一些负面影响”。
“Some resilience” — those were the two words Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem used last week to describe how the Canadian economy is holding up under the weight of U.S. tariffs.
Just a few days later, U.S. President Donald Trump added 35 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods to a running tally that includes hefty duties on steel, aluminum, automobiles and, more recently, semi-finished copper.
With tariffs piling up over the past few months, economists say Canada’s economy is starting to show cracks — but few signs of collapse.
TD Bank economist Marc Ercolao conceded it’s a “bit of surprise” to see the economy holding up against a massive disruption from Canada’s largest trading partner.
“Many months ago, ourselves — as well as other economic forecasters — had an outlook for a much weaker Canadian economy. Obviously, that isn’t manifesting now,” he said in an interview.
“We are avoiding the worst-case scenario.”
What are tariffs doing to the economy?
On Thursday, Statistics Canada gave a glimpse at how the economy wrapped up the second quarter of the year when many of those tariffs came into full effect.
While the agency sees a couple of small contractions in real gross domestic product by industry in April and May, its flash estimates show the economy rebounding somewhat in June.
If those early readings pan out, StatCan said that would be good enough for flat growth overall on the quarter.
Some of those results are distorted by volatility — businesses rushing to get ahead of tariffs boosted activity in the first quarter, and that’s giving way to weakness in the second quarter, for example.
It’s still hard to pinpoint exact impacts tied to tariffs, Ercolao said, but a broad trend is emerging.
“What we can say over the last six months or so is that economic activity is somewhat flatlining,” he said.
Services sectors are holding up relatively well, but Ercolao said export-heavy industries such as manufacturing and transportation are bearing the brunt of the impact.
In an attempt to shore up some of that weakness, the federal government has announced various programs to support tariff-affected workers and broader plans to accelerate defence and infrastructure spending.
Macklem noted during his press conference Wednesday that business and consumer confidence are still low, but have improved according to the central bank’s recent surveys.
And while some trade-exposed sectors have faced job losses and the unemployment has generally trended upward to nearly seven per cent, employers elsewhere in the economy continue to expand their payrolls.
“Consumption is still growing,” Macklem said. “It’s growing modestly. It’s certainly being restrained by the uncertainty caused by tariffs. But it is growing and we expect that to continue through the third and fourth quarters.”
Will Canada hit a recession?
Last week the Bank of Canada kept its policy interest rate unchanged at 2.75 per cent in a third consecutive decision.
If the central bank were panicked about the Canadian economy’s ability to withstand U.S. tariffs, Ercolao argued it would likely have lowered that rate.
The past week’s GDP readings were good enough for BMO to raise its outlook for the third quarter into positive territory. Forecasters at the bank now expect Canada will avoid a technical recession this year.
BMO chief economist Doug Porter said in a note to clients Friday that Ottawa’s personal tax cut at the start of the month and robust demand for domestic travel amid the trade war will boost the economy this quarter, as will “the less-dire sentiment” around economic forecasts.
Some other forecasters continue to pencil a tariff-induced recession into their outlooks.
In the Bank of Canada’s monetary policy report released alongside the rate decision, it outlined one scenario for the economy assuming the tariff situation remains largely status quo.
Canada avoids a recession in that outcome. Growth in 2025 and 2026 remains overall positive, but half a percentage point lower than it would’ve been without the weight of tariffs.
Macklem told reporters that the Bank of Canada would expect the economy to keep growing even with today’s tariffs in place, “but it’ll be on a permanently lower path.”
“Unfortunately, the sad reality is that tariffs mean the economy is going to work less efficiently,” he said.
What about the new tariffs?
Porter said in his note that the actual impact of Trump’s new 35 per cent tariff on Canada’s economy could be less than headline figure suggests.
Because of a carve-out for Canadian exports that are compliant with CUSMA, BMO sees the effective U.S. tariff rate at roughly seven per cent under the new duties, less than a percentage point higher than where it stood before Friday.
But with CUSMA up for renegotiation in 2026, Porter said that 35 per cent tariff rate could loom as a “cudgel” over negotiations — taking full effect if the trade agreement expires without a new deal in place.
The Bank of Canada published a separate “escalation” scenario this week that would see the United States remove Canada’s CUSMA exemption as it ramps up global tariffs.
Real GDP would drop an extra 1.25 per cent by 2027 in this more severe case; Porter said that this outcome would be “serious for sure, but far from disastrous.”
Ercolao said much of the tariff doom-and-gloom earlier in the year was tied to the speed at which those import duties would be imposed.
But the on-again, off-again nature of U.S. trade restrictions to date has given businesses time to adapt to the new way of doing business and constant delays in implementation, he said.
“If we go back to when Trump began his presidency, had he went 100 per cent on his tariff plan right away, we probably would have seen a deep economic contraction just because it would have been so sudden,” Ercolao explained.
“Now we’ve been afforded that time to at least try to mitigate some of the negative impacts from what these tariffs were expected to do to the Canadian economy.”
02
草原野火烟雾可能导致加拿大各地
出现阴霾天气
据预测，周日来自大草原的野火烟雾将使温哥华岛到夏洛特敦的许多地区天空弥漫着沙尘和雾霾。
加拿大环境和气候变化部的天气图显示，从西部的不列颠哥伦比亚省到东部的新不伦瑞克省和爱德华王子岛，都发布了空气质量声明和警告。
西北地区南部以及艾伯塔省、萨斯喀彻温省、马尼托巴省和安大略省的大部分地区也受到了影响。
气象局说，烟雾正在或预计将导致空气质量下降和能见度降低。气象局补充说，一些地区的烟雾预计将持续到下周一。
空气质量声明中写道：随着烟雾浓度的增加，健康风险也随之增加。
气象局说，糟糕的空气质量可能导致眼睛、鼻子和喉咙不适，更严重但不常见的症状包括胸痛和剧烈咳嗽。
瑞士空气质量技术公司 IQAir 称，多伦多是世界上空气质量最差的城市之一，曾一度排名第二，后来降至第四。
此时，加拿大各地有 700 多处野火在燃烧，其中包括不列颠哥伦比亚省卡梅伦湖北岸的一处野火，距离纳奈莫市约 60 公里，迫使数百人逃离。
周四发现的这场人为大火在周日估计面积为 3.89 平方公里。
火灾危险也继续迫使加拿大其他地方的居民撤离--有些人已经是第二次撤离了。
在马尼托巴省北部，尼尔森屋附近的尼西卡瓦西赫克克里族（Nisichawayasihk Cree Nation）因附近的野火而发布了全面疏散令，其中距离最近的一处野火在半小时车程外燃烧。
人们将在诺曼-林克莱特纪念综合影院登记，然后驱车前往以南约 800 公里处的温尼伯 RBC 会议中心。
社交媒体上的一则通知称，疏散约 4,600 名居民是为了以防万一。据信，强风足以煽起附近的火焰，并切断道路交通。
疏散通知称：请不要惊慌，我们主要担心的是高速公路关闭。
长周末出城的人要联系国家官员，报告他们的住处。今年 7 月，由于野火烟雾严重而进入紧急状态，一些居民逃离了家园。
马尼托巴省野火服务部门称，该社区以北至少有两处大火正在燃烧，其中一处面积估计超过 4.6 万公顷。
在萨斯喀彻温省，萨斯卡通以北约 500 公里处的派恩豪斯村本周早些时候疏散了所有非必要人员。Clearwater River Dene Nation 也是如此。
除了空气警告之外，萨斯喀彻温省和艾伯塔省的许多地区还发布了高温警告，因为预计周日白天的气温将高达 30 摄氏度以上。
Wildfire smoke from the Prairies was forecast Sunday to fill many of the skies from Vancouver Island to Charlottetown with gritty, hazy dust.
Weather maps for Environment and Climate Change Canada showed air quality statements and warnings, stretching from British Columbia in the west to New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island in the east.
Southern parts of the Northwest Territories, as well as much of Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and Ontario, also were affected.
The smoke was causing or expected to cause poor air quality and reduced visibility, the weather office said. It added that some areas were expected to see the smoke last until Monday.
“As smoke levels increase, health risks increase,” reads an air quality statement.
The weather agency said the poor air quality can cause eye, nose and throat irritation, while more serious but less common symptoms include chest pains and a severe cough.
IQAir, a Swiss air quality technology company, said Toronto had some of the worst air quality in the world — at one point sitting at second before dropping to fourth place.
It comes as more than 700 wildfires burn across Canada, including one on the north banks of Cameron Lake in B.C., about 60 kilometres from the city of Nanaimo, that forced hundreds to flee.
The human-caused fire, discovered Thursday, was estimated Sunday at 3.89 square kilometres in size.
The Regional District of Nanaimo has said most of the 393 properties under evacuation order are residential. As of Saturday, another 238 properties were under evacuation alert.
Fire dangers also continue to force evacuations elsewhere in Canada — some for a second time.
In northern Manitoba, the Nisichawayasihk Cree Nation near Nelson House issued a full evacuation order due to nearby wildfires, one of the closest burning about half an hour away.
People were to register at the Norman Linklater Memorial Multiplex before driving down to the RBC Convention Centre in Winnipeg, some 800 kilometres south.
A notice on social media said the evacuation of its roughly 4,600 residents was precautionary. Winds were believed to be strong enough to fan the nearby flames and cut off road access.
“Please do not panic, we are not in danger,” the evacuation notice said. “Our main concern is the highway closure.”
People who were out of town for the long weekend were to contact Nation officials to report where they were staying. In July, some residents fled following a state of emergency over heavy wildfire smoke.
Manitoba’s wildfire service said at least two fires were burning north of the community, including one estimated to be more than 46,000 hectares in size.
In Saskatchewan, the village of Pinehouse, roughly 500 kilometres north of Saskatoon, evacuated all non-essential personnel earlier this week. So too did the Clearwater River Dene Nation.
On top of the air advisories, many parts of both Saskatchewan and Alberta fell under heat warnings as daytime temperatures Sunday were forecast to be upwards of 30 degrees C.
03
加拿大皇家骑警在树林中发现一名死亡女性
加拿大皇家骑警仍在现场对尼科尔地区发现的一名死亡妇女进行初步调查。
周一早上 7:25 左右，地面搜救志愿者在一片树林中发现了一名 32 岁的女性。
加拿大皇家骑警尚未公布该女子的身份，但表示她之前在 8 月 2 日被报告失踪。
加拿大皇家骑警说：在此艰难时刻，我们与该女子的亲人同在。
调查仍处于初期阶段，加拿大皇家骑警正在新斯科舍省法医的协助下确定死因。
RCMP officers remain on scene in the beginning stages of an investigation into a woman found deceased in the Nictaux area.
At approximately 7:25 a.m. Monday morning, a 32-year-old woman was found by ground search and rescue volunteers in a wooded area.
RCMP have not released the woman’s identity but say she was previously reported missing on August 2.
“Our thoughts are with the woman’s loved ones at this difficult time,” RCMP said.
The investigation is in its early stages and RCMP are being assisted by the Nova Scotia Medical Examiner to determine a cause of death.
END
编辑 | 脆脆星
审核 | 李彧意
来源 | https://www.cbc.ca/news/
https://globalnews.ca/news/
https://atlantic.ctvnews.ca
https://news.novascotia.ca/
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