《经济学人》| 铜关税

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Nestledamong the Oquirrh Mountains in Utah is the deepest open-pit copper mine on Earth.

坐落于犹他州奥克尔山脉之间的，是地球上最深的露天铜矿。

TheBingham Canyon mine, once owned by the Guggenheims and now run by Rio Tinto, has been in operation since 1903.

宾厄姆峡谷矿曾经由古根海姆家族拥有，现在由力拓运营，自1903年起就开始运作。

Evennow about 275,000 tonnes of the red metal are dug from it every year, nearly a quarter of America's annual production.

即便现在，每年仍有约27.5万吨这种红色金属从这里开采出来，接近美国年产量的四分之一。

Itsrocks are sent down a five-mile conveyor belt to be crushed.

矿石通过一条长达五英里的传送带被输送下去进行粉碎。

Themineral is then separated out, smelted into liquid and refined into 99.99% pure copper plates.

矿石随后被分离出来，熔炼成液态，并提炼成纯度达99.99%的铜板。

Thevertically integrated mine is the last of its kind in America, which until the 1960s was the world's biggest producer of copper.

这种垂直一体化的矿山在美国已是凤毛麟角，而在上世纪60年代之前， 美国曾是全球最大的铜生产国。

DonaldTrump hopes to return to those glory days.

唐纳德·特朗普希望重现昔日的辉煌。

OnJuly 8th the president indicated that America would soon slap a 50% tariff on imports of the metal, having opened an investigation into them in February.

7月8日， 总统表示美国很快将对铜进口征收50%的关税，此前在2月份已对此展开调查。

"Theidea is to bring copper home," Howard Lutnick, the commerce secretary, subsequently elaborated, noting that an official announcement could come as soon as the end of the month.

“这个想法是让铜回归国内，” 商务部秘书霍华德·卢特尼克随后解释说，并指出官方声明可能会在月底前发布。

Yetthe levies are unlikely to stimulate much mining or processing in America, while the resulting surge in prices will undermine Mr Trump's wider economic agenda.

然而，这些关税不太可能在美国刺激大量的采矿或加工活动，而由此导致的价格上涨将削弱特朗普总统更广泛的经济议程。

Americais the world's second-biggest consumer of copper, after China, but produces just 5% of the global supply and processes only 3%.

美国是全球第二大铜消费国，仅次于中国，但其产量仅占全球供应的5%， 加工量也仅为3%。

Around45% of American demand is met by net imports, which primarily take the refined form of pipes, tubes and wires, rather than raw ore.

大约45%的美国需求依赖净进口，这些进口主要以精炼形式的管道、管材和电线为主，而不是原始矿石。

Mostof them end up in buildings, including the factories and data centres Mr Trump is eager for America to construct, and electronics, which he wants the country to make much more of.

大多数最终都被用于建筑中，包括特朗普先生希望美国建造的工厂和数据中心，以及电子产品，他希望国家能制造更多的这类产品。

Thepresident's pronouncement has already sent the price for future copper supplies in America soaring—and overseas prices plunging.

总统的这一声明已经导致美国未来铜供应价格飙升，同时海外价格大幅下跌。

Thedivergence between the two had been widening since earlier this year.

两者之间的分歧自今年初以来一直在扩大。

Copperinventories at the London Metal Exchange have declined as imports into America have surged amid stockpiling.

伦敦金属交易所的铜库存下降，因美国在囤积库存的背景下，进口激增。

Allthis has resulted in "intense volatility and speculation", note analysts at United Overseas Bank, a Singapore-based lender.

新加坡大华银行分析师指出，这一切导致了“剧烈的波动和投机行为”。

Higherprices in America suit miners with copper assets in the country just fine.

美国铜价上涨正中那些在国内拥有铜矿资产的矿商下怀。

Theshares of Rio Tinto and Freeport-McMoRan, an American miner which accounts for 60% of domestic copper production, have risen.

力拓和自由港-麦克莫兰公司的股价均有所上涨，后者作为美国的一家矿业公司， 占据国内铜产量60%的份额。

Forthe latter, a 50% duty could result in windfall profits of $1.6bn a year, reckons Deutsche Bank, another lender.

德意志银行估计，对于后者而言，50%的关税可能会带来每年16亿美元的意外之财。

Higherprices, though, will not do much to boost domestic supply, at least not any time soon.

尽管价格上涨，但这对短期内提升国内供应量并无太大帮助。

Diggingmines takes years, sometimes decades—and is around three times as expensive in America as it is abroad.

开矿需要数年，有时甚至数十年——而在美国，其成本大约是海外的三倍。

Refiningcopper is no easier; smelters cost about $3bn and gobble up huge amounts of power.

提炼铜同样不易；冶炼厂耗资约30亿美元，并消耗大量电力。

Bossesare loth to make such large capital investments on the basis of tariffs that could easily be withdrawn at a whim of the president.

老板们不愿意基于可能被总统随意撤销的关税进行如此大规模的资本投资。

Therewould be better ways for Mr Trump to stimulate production.

特朗普先生有更好的方式来刺激生产。

"Themain changes that need to happen are on the expediency of approvals, " and "support for projects... from communities and legislators", says Iván Arriagada, chief executive of Antofagasta, a Chilean miner.

“主要需要改变的是审批的效率，”以及“获得社区和立法者的项目支持”，智利矿业公司安托法加斯塔的首席执行官伊万·阿里亚加达说道。

Thepresident could focus in particular on fast-tracking the huge but long-delayed Resolution Copper mine in Arizona, a joint venture between Rio Tinto and BHP, another mining giant.

总统可能会特别关注加速推进位于亚利桑那州的巨大但长期延误的决议铜矿项目，这是力拓与另一矿业巨头必和必拓的合资企业。

Byone estimate, it could meet another quarter of America's demand for the metal.

据一项估计，它可能满足美国对这种金属需求的另外四分之一。

Byturning instead to tariffs, Mr Trump will harm American businesses.

特朗普总统若选择通过关税手段，将损害美国企业的利益。

Carmakersuse over 20 kilograms of copper in each vehicle, and even more in electric ones.

汽车制造商在每辆汽车中使用超过20公斤的铜，而在电动汽车中使用的铜则更多。

Datacentres require at least 27 tonnes of the metal per megawatt of power, adding up to almost 3,000 tonnes for a large site.

数据中心每兆瓦电力至少需要27吨铜，一个大型站点累计需近3000吨。

Nvidia'spopular NVL72 server rack links together 108 of the chipmaker's cutting-edge processors with some two miles of copper wire.

英伟达的热门NVL72服务器机架将108个该芯片制造商的前沿处理器用大约两英里的铜线连接在一起。

Significantlyhigher prices in America could deter businesses from building factories and data centres in the country.

美国显着上涨的价格可能会阻止企业在该国建立工厂和数据中心。

Thatwould crush Mr Trump's plan for economic greatness.

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——新书发布——

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