AI会摧毁软件公司价值吗?

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In this video, Adam Khoo discusses the recent decline in software stocks and analyzes whether the rise of AI agents, particularly Anthropic’s "Claude Co-work," poses an existential threat to major software companies.

在这段视频中，Adam Khoo 讨论了近期软件股的下跌，并分析了 AI 智能体（尤其是 Anthropic 的“Claude Co-work”）的崛起是否对大型软件公司构成生存威胁。

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The Core Threat: Agentic AI

核心威胁：代理式 AI

The primary concern for investors is the shift from "chatting" with AI to "agentic" AI.

投资者最担心的是从与 AI“聊天”向“代理式”AI 的转变。

Tools like Claude Co-work act as digital colleagues that can autonomously access files, operate browsers, and execute complex workflows without human intervention. This creates two main fears:

像 Claude Co-work 这样的工具充当数字同事，可以在无需人工干预的情况下自主访问文件、操作浏览器并执行复杂的流程。这引发了两个主要担忧：

Vibe Coding: The ability for non-programmers to replicate complex software (like Zoom or Slack) in minutes, potentially making expensive enterprise software obsolete.

氛围编程（Vibe Coding）：非程序员也能在几分钟内复制复杂软件（如 Zoom 或 Slack）的能力，这可能使昂贵的企业软件变得过时。

Collapse of Seat-Based Pricing: Most software companies charge per employee "seat." As AI agents replace human workers, companies may need fewer licenses, leading to a massive drop in revenue for software providers.

按位收费模式的崩塌：大多数软件公司按员工“席位”收费。随着 AI 智能体取代人类员工，公司可能需要更少的许可证，从而导致软件供应商收入大幅下降。

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The Three Layers of Software Value

软件价值的三个层面

Khoo argues that a company’s resilience depends on which of the three layers of enterprise technology it provides:

Khoo 认为，一家公司的韧性取决于它提供的是企业技术的哪三个层面：

System of Record (SoR): The "memory bank" or single source of truth for a company’s data (e.g., legal, tax, and transaction audits). This is the hardest to replace because switching is like a "heart transplant."

记录系统 (SoR)：公司数据的“存储库”或唯一真实来源（例如法律、税务和交易审计）。这是最难被替代的，因为更换它就像进行“心脏移植”。

System of Engagement (SoE): The user interface and dashboards (e.g., clicking menus in Photoshop). This is the most vulnerable layer as AI agents can bypass these interfaces entirely.

交互系统 (SoE)：用户界面和仪表板（例如在 Photoshop 中点击菜单）。这是最脆弱的一层，因为 AI 智能体可以完全绕过这些界面。

System of Intelligence (SoI): The "brain" or operator layer that interprets goals and executes tasks. Companies developing their own AI agents (like Microsoft’s Co-pilot) are better positioned.

智能系统 (SoI)：“大脑”或操作层，负责解读目标并执行任务。开发自家 AI 智能体（如微软的 Co-pilot）的公司处于更有利的位置。

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Resilience Rankings

韧性排名

The video ranks popular software companies based on their ability to survive the AI transition:

视频根据热门软件公司在 AI 转型中的生存能力进行了排名：

Microsoft (9.5/10): Highly resilient because it controls the infrastructure (Azure), the system of record, and has a strong monetization path for AI agents.

微软 (9.5/10)：极具韧性，因为它控制着基础设施（Azure）、记录系统，并且拥有清晰的 AI 智能体变现路径。

ServiceNow (9.2/10): Very strong because it spans all three layers and is successfully pivoting from seat-based pricing to consumption-based (outcome) pricing.

ServiceNow (9.2/10)：非常强大，因为它跨越了所有三个层面，并成功地从按席位定价转向按量（按结果）定价。

Veeva Systems (9.0/10): High resilience due to deep regulatory and industry-specific data requirements in life sciences that AI cannot easily replicate.

Veeva Systems (9.0/10)：高韧性，得益于生命科学领域深度监管和行业特定的数据要求，AI 难以轻易复制。

Salesforce (7.0/10): Moderately resilient. While it is launching "Agentforce," its CRM data is more easily exported, and its value is heavily tied to the vulnerable engagement layer.

Salesforce (7.0/10)：韧性中等。虽然推出了“Agentforce”，但其 CRM 数据更容易被导出，且其价值与脆弱的交互层深度绑定。

Adobe (5.5/10): Most vulnerable. Adobe is primarily a "System of Engagement" company.

Adobe (5.5/10)：最脆弱。Adobe 主要是一家“交互系统”公司。

If AI tools like Midjourney or Firefly allow one designer to do the work of three, or if agents perform the tasks humans used to do manually, Adobe faces significant seat-compression risk.

如果像 Midjourney 或 Firefly 这样的 AI 工具让一名设计师能完成三人的工作，或者由智能体执行人类以前手动完成的任务，Adobe 将面临巨大的席位缩减风险。

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Conclusion for Investors

给投资者的结论

Khoo reminds viewers that while these fears are driving stock prices down, the actual revenues and profits of these companies are still growing.

Khoo 提醒观众，虽然这些担忧在推低股价，但这些公司的实际营收和利润仍在增长。

He compares the current panic to previous "irrational fears," such as the idea that ChatGPT would kill Google or that DeepSeek would bankrupt Nvidia.

他将当前的恐慌比作之前的“非理性恐惧”，比如认为 ChatGPT 会杀死谷歌，或 DeepSeek 会让英伟达破产。

He suggests that intelligent investors should look for companies that provide a "System of Record" and can pivot their pricing models to match the AI era.

他建议聪明的投资者应寻找那些提供“记录系统”并能调整定价模型以适应 AI 时代的的公司。

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