关税再度成为经济不确定因素

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作者：微信文章
一、外刊原文及翻译

原文 1：关税政策变动


Before last Friday, President Trump’s tariffs, after months of on-again, off-again turbulence, had seemed to finally steady. Now, with the bulk of Trump’s tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy.

翻译：
上周五之前，特朗普总统的关税政策在经历了数月的反复动荡后，似乎终于稳定下来。如今，随着最高法院否决了特朗普的大部分关税，并实施了一项新的临时全球关税，美国经济再次面临新的疑问。

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原文 2：关税对贸易和财政的影响


Will Trump’s new 15% tariff meaningfully change trade flows and business operations? Will the federal government be able to reap trillions in tariff revenues that could help slow surging national debt? Will billions of dollars from the overturned tariffs flow back to businesses demanding refunds?

翻译：
特朗普新的15%关税是否会显著改变贸易流向和企业运营？联邦政府能否通过关税收入获得数万亿美元，从而缓解不断飙升的国家债务？被否决的关税所涉及的数十亿美元是否会回流到要求退款的企业手中？

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原文 3：政策不确定性


The answers will largely turn on how aggressively the administration pushes to permanently replace the struck-down tariffs, and how trade partners and U.S. political leaders respond.

翻译：
答案在很大程度上取决于政府在多大程度上积极推动永久性替代被否决的关税，以及贸易伙伴和美国政治领导人的反应。

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原文 4：关税政策的利弊


On the one hand, higher tariffs allow the government to bring in more revenue to shrink government debt, and help re-energize sectors of the U.S. economy. But a lower tariff rate—as well as potential tariff refunds—would likely keep more money in the hands of U.S. businesses and consumers, which could spur economic growth.

翻译：
一方面，提高关税可以让政府获得更多收入以减少政府债务，并有助于重振美国经济的部分行业。但较低的关税税率以及潜在的关税退款可能会让更多的钱留在美国企业和消费者手中，从而刺激经济增长。

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原文 5：新关税的短期影响


After Friday’s Supreme Court ruling, Trump imposed a 15% global tariff on imports. Accounting for exemptions and other trade deals, the new tariff brings the average effective U.S. tariff rate just slightly lower than where it was before the ruling.

翻译：
在周五最高法院作出裁决后，特朗普对进口商品征收了15%的全球关税。考虑到豁免和其他贸易协议，新关税使美国平均有效关税税率仅略低于裁决前的水平。

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原文 6：耶鲁预算实验室的估算


The Yale Budget Lab estimates it is now at 13.7%, compared with 16% before the ruling. By comparison, over the course of 2025, the effective tariff rate soared more than 10 percentage points, to levels not seen for decades.

翻译：
耶鲁预算实验室估计，目前的关税税率为13.7%，而裁决前为16%。相比之下，2025年全年，有效关税税率飙升了10多个百分点，达到数十年来未见的高水平。

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原文 7：关税增加的经济影响


The economic effect of that sizable increase wasn’t nearly as dire as many economists predicted. But it wasn’t negligible either. U.S. companies and consumers shouldered more than 90% of the costs from Trump’s tariffs for most of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

翻译：
关税大幅增加所带来的经济影响并不像许多经济学家预测的那样严重，但也不容忽视。据纽约联邦储备银行称，在2025年的大部分时间里，美国企业和消费者承担了特朗普关税90%以上的成本。

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原文 8：新关税的期限


The new tariffs can stay on for a maximum of 150 days because of the specific law Trump used to impose them. Assuming they end after that time, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the average effective tariff rate would drop to 9.1%.

翻译：
由于特朗普用来实施新关税的特定法律，这些关税最多可维持150天。假设它们在此之后结束，耶鲁预算实验室估计平均有效关税税率将降至9.1%。

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原文 9：关税政策的未来


Whether that level sticks is unclear, however, as Trump has vowed to add more duties using other legal means. Some companies could decide that a floor on tariffs is here to stay and move forward with decisions like raising prices to transfer more of the tariff burden to consumers.

翻译：
然而，这一税率水平是否会维持下去尚不清楚，因为特朗普已誓言要使用其他法律手段增加更多关税。一些公司可能会认为关税底线将维持下去，并做出诸如提价等决定，将更多的关税负担转嫁给消费者。

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原文 10：企业应对策略


Others may continue to put off investment and hiring. “The whole uncertainty of tariff policy is really not favorable for employment or investment in the real economy,” said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

翻译：
其他公司可能会继续推迟投资和招聘。“关税政策的整体不确定性确实不利于实体经济中的就业或投资，”彼得森国际经济研究所的经济学家加里·克莱德·赫夫鲍尔说道。

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原文 11：企业调整供应链


Clifton Broumand, owner of a Maryland-based business that assembles waterproof keyboards and computer mice for the healthcare industry, is looking to shift his purchases of silicone parts from China to Mexico to avoid tariffs.

翻译：
克利夫顿·布罗曼德是一家位于马里兰州的企业的老板，该公司为医疗行业组装防水键盘和鼠标。他正考虑将硅胶部件的采购从中国转移到墨西哥，以避免关税。

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原文 12：贸易协议谈判


To make his planning easier, he is hoping that Trump doesn’t change Mexico’s arrangement with the U.S. that allows many of its products to enter duty-free. Negotiations over the terms of USMCA, the free-trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, are scheduled for later this year.

翻译：
为了使他的规划更容易，他希望特朗普不要改变墨西哥与美国之间的协议，该协议允许墨西哥的许多产品免税进入美国。美国、加拿大和墨西哥之间的自由贸易协定USMCA的条款谈判定于今年晚些时候进行。

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原文 15：财政部的预期


U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he expects his department to take in about the same amount of tariff revenue in 2026 as before, with the help of Trump’s newly imposed tariffs.

翻译：
美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，他预计在特朗普新征收的关税的帮助下，财政部在2026年的关税收入将与之前大致相同。

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原文 16：退款争议


The Trump administration raised more than $133 billion in Ieepa tariffs as of mid-December. The Supreme Court didn’t address refunds in its ruling, and Trump said he expects it will be litigated “for years.” Hundreds of businesses have already filed cases with the Court of International Trade, a New York-based federal court, to increase the likelihood of getting money back.

翻译：
截至12月中旬，特朗普政府通过Ieepa关税筹集了超过1330亿美元。最高法院在裁决中未涉及退款问题，特朗普表示，他预计这一问题将“争论数年”。数百家企业已经向位于纽约的联邦法院——国际贸易法院提起诉讼，以增加拿回资金的可能性。

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原文 17：企业主的退款期望


Broumand, the business owner, said he paid tariffs totaling $35,000 last year but has yet to figure out how much of that might qualify for a refund. “If there is a class-action lawsuit [to recover money], I’ll join it,” he said.

翻译：
企业主布罗曼德表示，他去年支付了总额为3.5万美元的关税，但尚未弄清楚其中有多少可能符合退款条件。“如果有集体诉讼（以追回资金），我会加入，”他说道。

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原文 18：政策不确定性带来的困扰


“Rather than trying to build business and sales, I waste my time trying to manage this,” he said.

翻译：
“我没有时间拓展业务和销售，却把时间浪费在处理这些事情上，”他说道。

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二、重点词汇讲解

tariff

词性： 名词释义： 关税例句： The government imposed a new tariff on imported goods.考研用法： 常用于国际贸易和经济学讨论中。

turbulence

词性： 名词释义： 动荡，混乱例句： The market experienced a period of turbulence after the announcement.考研用法： 在经济和市场分析中常见。

revenue

词性： 名词释义： 收入例句： The company’s revenue increased significantly last year.考研用法： 常用于财务和商业分析中。

exemption

词性： 名词释义： 豁免例句： Certain goods are eligible for tariff exemptions.考研用法： 在法律和贸易讨论中常见。

vow

词性： 动词释义： 发誓，承诺例句： The president vowed to reduce taxes for middle-class families.考研用法： 在政治和承诺相关语境中常见。

uncertainty

词性： 名词释义： 不确定性例句： Economic uncertainty has led to decreased consumer spending.考研用法： 在经济和市场分析中频繁出现。

scenario

词性： 名词释义： 情景，设想例句： We need to consider different scenarios for the future market.考研用法： 在规划和预测讨论中常见。

litigate

词性： 动词释义： 诉讼，打官司例句： The company decided to litigate the issue in court.考研用法： 在法律和商业纠纷中常见。

eligible

词性： 形容词释义： 符合条件的例句： Only eligible customers can participate in the promotion.考研用法： 在规则和条件讨论中常见。

significantly

词性： 副词释义： 显著地例句： The new policy has significantly improved the situation.考研用法： 在结果和影响描述中常见。