关税再次成为经济变数

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关税再次成为经济变数

Tariffs Again Become Economic Wild Card

Before last Friday, President Trump’s tariffs, after months of on-again, off-again turbulence, had seemed to finally steady. Now, with the bulk of Trump’s tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions hang over the U.S. economy.

Will Trump’s new 15% tariff meaningfully change trade flows and business operations? Will the federal government be able to reap trillions in tariff revenues that could help slow surging national debt? Will billions of dollars from the overturned tariffs flow back to businesses demanding refunds? The answers will largely turn on how aggressively the administration pushes to permanently replace the struckdown tariffs, and how trade partners and U.S. political leaders respond. On the one hand, higher tariffs allow the government to bring in more revenue to shrink government debt, and help re-energize sectors of the U.S. economy.

But a lower tariff rate—as well as potential tariff refunds— would likely keep more money in the hands of U.S. businesses and consumers, which could spur economic growth.

What happens next will help determine the direction of an economy that powered through an avalanche of change in 2025 and emerged in the new year on a betterthan- expected footing.

Shouldering costs

After Friday’s Supreme Court ruling, Trump imposed a 15% global tariff on imports.

Accounting for exemptions and other trade deals, the new tariff brings the average effective U.S. tariff rate just slightly lower than where it was before the ruling. The Yale Budget Lab estimates it is now at 13.7%, compared with 16% before the ruling.

By comparison, over the course of 2025, the effective tariff rate soared more than 10 percentage points, to levels not seen for decades.

The economic effect of that sizable increase wasn’t nearly as dire as many economists predicted. But it wasn’t negligible either. U.S. companies and consumers shouldered more than 90% of the costs from Trump’s tariffs for most of 2025, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The new tariffs can stay on for a maximum of 150 days because of the specific law Trump used to impose them.

Assuming they end after that time, the Yale Budget Lab estimates the average effective tariff rate would drop to 9.1%.

Whether that level sticks is unclear, however, as Trump has vowed to add more duties using other legal means.

Some companies could decide that a floor on tariffs is here to stay and move forward with decisions like raising prices to transfer more of the tariff burden to consumers.

Others may continue to put off investment and hiring.

“The whole uncertainty of tariff policy is really not favorable for employment or investment in the real economy,” said Gary Clyde Hufbauer, economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Clifton Broumand, owner of a Maryland-based business that assembles waterproof keyboards and computer mice for the healthcare industry, is looking to shift his purchases of silicone parts from China to Mexico to avoid tariffs. “Nobody makes what we need in the U.S.,” he said.

To make his planning easier, he is hoping that Trump doesn’t change Mexico’s arrangement with the U.S. that allows many of its products to enter duty-free. Negotiations over the terms of USMCA, the free-trade deal between the U.S., Canada and Mexico, are scheduled for later this year.

The Congressional Budget Office estimated that had Trump’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, or Ieepa, not been canceled, his tariff regime would have raised $3 trillion in total over the next decade.

The Yale Budget Lab’s estimate is smaller at $2.62 trillion.

Cut by half

Now, even with Trump imposing a fresh 15% tariff, estimated revenues will be cut by about half: The lab estimates that Trump’s tariff regime will raise $1.3 trillion in total if 15% stays in effect for 150 days. In the scenario that the 15% becomes permanent, Trump’s tariff regime would raise $2.2 trillion.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has said he expects his department to take in about the same amount of tariff revenue in 2026 as before, with the help of Trump’s newly imposed tariffs.

The Trump administration raised more than $133 billion in Ieepa tariffs as of mid-December.

The Supreme Court didn’t address refunds in its ruling, and Trump said he expects it will be litigated “for years.”Hundreds of businesses have already filed cases with the Court of International Trade, a New York based federal court, to increase the likelihood of getting money back.

Broumand, the business owner, said he paid tariffs totaling $35,000 last year but has yet to figure out how much of that might qualify for a refund. “If there is a class action lawsuit [to recover money], I’ll join it,” he said.

“Rather than trying to build business and sales, I waste my time trying to manage this,” he said.

关税再次成为经济变数



在上周五之前，特朗普总统的关税政策在经历了几个月的断断续续的动荡之后，似乎终于稳定了下来。如今，随着特朗普的大部分关税被最高法院推翻，并实施了一项新的临时全球关税，美国经济又面临新的问题。

特朗普新征收的15%关税能否切实改变贸易流动和商业运营？联邦政府能否获得数万亿美元的关税收入，以帮助减缓不断飙升的国债？被推翻的关税所涉及的数十亿美元能否回流到要求退款的企业？答案将在很大程度上取决于政府推动永久取代被推翻关税的力度，以及贸易伙伴和美国政治领导人的反应。一方面，提高关税可以使政府获得更多收入，从而减少政府债务，并帮助重振美国经济的各个部门。

但较低的关税税率——以及潜在的关税退税——可能会让更多的钱留在美国企业和消费者手中，从而刺激经济增长。

接下来发生的事情将有助于确定一个经济体的走向，该经济体在2025年经历了翻天覆地的变化，并在新的一年里以优于预期的态势崭露头角。

承担成本

周五最高法院作出裁决后，特朗普对进口商品加征了15%的全球关税。

考虑到豁免和其他贸易协议，新关税使美国平均有效关税税率略低于裁决前的水平。耶鲁预算实验室估计，目前该税率为13.7%，而裁决前的税率为16%。

相比之下，在2025年期间，有效关税率飙升了10多个百分点，达到了数十年未见的水平。

这一大幅增长所带来的经济影响并不像许多经济学家预测的那么可怕。但也不容忽视。据纽约联邦储备银行称，在2025年的大部分时间里，特朗普的关税所造成的成本中，90%以上由美国企业和消费者承担。

由于特朗普用来征收关税的特定法律，新关税最多可维持150天。

假设关税在那之后结束，耶鲁预算实验室估计平均有效关税率将降至9.1%。

然而，这一水平是否会保持下去尚不清楚，因为特朗普已誓言将通过其他法律手段加征更多关税。

一些公司可能会认为关税下限将长期存在，并决定采取诸如提价等措施，将更多关税负担转嫁给消费者。

其他人可能会继续推迟投资和招聘。

彼得森国际经济研究所经济学家加里·克莱德·赫夫鲍尔表示：“关税政策的整体不确定性确实不利于实体经济的就业或投资。”。

克利夫顿·布鲁曼德（Clifton Broumand）是一家总部位于马里兰州的企业的老板，该企业为医疗保健行业组装防水键盘和电脑鼠标。为了避免关税，他正考虑将硅胶部件的采购从中国转移到墨西哥。“在美国，没有人能生产我们需要的东西，”他说。

为了使规划更加容易，他希望特朗普不要改变墨西哥与美国之间的安排，该安排允许许多墨西哥产品免税进入美国。关于美国、加拿大和墨西哥之间的自由贸易协定《美墨加协定》（USMCA）条款的谈判定于今年晚些时候进行。

国会预算办公室估计，如果特朗普根据《国际紧急经济权力法》（International Emergency Economic Powers Act，简称IEPA）征收关税的举措没有被取消，那么在未来十年里，他的关税制度将总共筹集3万亿美元。

耶鲁预算实验室的估算数字则较低，为2.62万亿美元。

减半

如今，即便特朗普加征了15%的新关税，预计收入也将减半：该实验室估计，如果15%的关税持续150天，特朗普的关税制度将总共筹集1.3万亿美元。若15%的关税成为永久性政策，特朗普的关税制度将筹集2.2万亿美元。

美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，在特朗普新征收关税的帮助下，他预计财政部2026年的关税收入将与之前大致持平。

截至12月中旬，特朗普政府通过《印度-欧洲经济伙伴关系协定》（IEPA）关税筹集了超过1330亿美元。

最高法院在裁决中未提及退款问题，特朗普表示，他预计这一问题将“持续数年”引发诉讼。数百家企业已向位于纽约的联邦法院——国际贸易法院提起诉讼，以提高获得退款的可能性。

企业主布罗曼德表示，他去年支付的关税总额为3.5万美元，但尚未弄清楚其中有多少符合退税条件。“如果有（追回税款的）集体诉讼，我会参与其中，”他说。

“我没有把时间花在拓展业务和提升销量上，而是浪费在管理这些事情上，”他说。

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