美国加征关税引担忧 企业承压消费者买单

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Trade experts warn that President Trump’s executive order raising U.S. import tariffs could hike consumer prices and extend business uncertainty. The new rates, with most countries facing at least 15% tariffs and some over 40%, push the U.S. effective tariff rate to 17%—a decades-high, per Fitch Ratings. Barry Appleton of New York Law School noted businesses crave certainty but face a “gigantic Rubik’s Cube” due to vague implementation details. A National Taxpayers Union analysis estimates the tariffs could cost Americans $2,048 yearly, affecting goods like Vietnamese garments, Chinese toys, and Brazilian coffee.

贸易专家警告，特朗普总统提高美国进口关税的行政令可能推高消费品价格，并延长企业的不确定性。新关税政策下，多数国家面临至少 15% 的关税，部分国家超过 40%，据惠誉评级，这使美国实际关税税率升至 17%，为数十年来最高。纽约法学院的巴里・阿普尔顿指出，企业渴望确定性，但由于实施细节模糊，他们面临的是一个 “巨大的魔方”。美国纳税人联盟的一项分析估计，这些关税可能每年让美国人多支出 2048 美元，受影响的商品包括越南服装、中国玩具和巴西咖啡等。

The White House defends the tariffs as correcting unfair trade practices and boosting U.S. manufacturing, citing expanded market access for exports and new manufacturing investments. However, economists caution of higher inflation and slower growth. Oxford Economics identifies likely pricier items: appliances, furniture, cars, and clothing. Automakers like Ford and GM warn of billions in profit losses, with 2026 models potentially costing 4-6% more. Syracuse’s Terence Lau advises consumers to buy cars now, as prices will rise.

白宫为关税政策辩护，称其旨在纠正不公平贸易行为、提振美国制造业，并提到出口市场准入扩大和新增制造业投资。然而，经济学家警告这可能导致通胀加剧和增长放缓。牛津经济研究院指出，家电、家具、汽车和服装等商品可能涨价。福特和通用等汽车制造商警告利润将损失数十亿美元，2026 款车型价格可能上涨 4%-6%。雪城大学的特伦斯・刘建议消费者现在购车，因为价格将会上涨。

Beyond direct price hikes, experts note subtler impacts: reduced product choices, smaller quantities, and fewer promotions as companies cut costs. Businesses that front-loaded imports to avoid tariffs will soon face higher costs when restocking, with price peaks expected in late 2025. Supply-chain expert Rodney Manzo explains firms may trim stockpiles or simplify products to hit margins, while supply delays could limit options. “The effects are subtler than shelf price hikes,” he said, highlighting reduced variety and smaller packages.

专家指出，除了直接涨价，更隐蔽的影响包括：商品选择减少、数量缩水、促销活动减少，因为企业要削减成本。为规避关税而提前进口的企业，在补货时将面临更高成本，预计 2025 年末价格将达峰值。供应链专家罗德尼・曼佐解释，企业可能会减少库存或简化产品以达到利润目标，而供应链延迟可能限制商品种类。“影响比货架上的涨价更隐蔽，” 他说，强调品种减少和包装变小等现象。

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