关税战的新棋局:法院叫停之后,特朗普如何继续出牌?

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作者：微信文章
[英文版在中文版之后｜The English version follows the Chinese version]

2月20日美国最高法院的一纸裁决彻底颠覆了白宫的关税版图。这不仅是法律上的胜负，更是一场涉及1750亿美元的资产重估。当“紧急权力”被关进笼子，特朗普的“B计划”已箭在弦上。在这场史无前例的博弈中，哪些行业正迎来黄金避风港？对于持有美股的投资者来说，这其中既有实质性的短期利好，也藏着不容忽视的长期变数。让我们用最直白的语言，把这一周发生的事、背后的市场逻辑、以及作为投资者最该关注的问题，一一说清楚。

01这一周发生了什么？

2026年2月20日，星期五。对于美国市场来说，这是一个注定载入史册的交易日。当天上午，美国最高法院以6比3的投票结果，裁定特朗普总统此前依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）对全球进口商品征收的大规模"对等关税"属于违法行为，认定此举超越了总统的法定权限。消息一出，美股迅速反弹——标普500指数当日收涨0.7%，纳斯达克指数上涨0.9%，终结了令投资者煎熬的连续五周下跌。

然而，白宫的反应来得比市场庆祝的时间更快。就在裁决公布数小时后，特朗普总统在白宫新闻发布会上怒斥裁决，并随即宣布将依据另一套法律授权——《1974年贸易法》第122条——对全球所有进口商品征收10%的临时关税。这份行政令于2月24日（周一）凌晨正式生效。

📌 关键背景 此次最高法院裁决是美国司法史上对总统贸易权力的一次重大制约。但特朗普政府的立场十分明确：贸易政策的大方向不会改变，只是换了法律工具继续推进。

02通俗解释：两套法律，两口锅

普通投资者面对这些法律名词，难免感到困惑。我们用一个简单的比喻来说明：

想象特朗普的关税策略是一位厨师，想用不同的锅来烹饪同一道菜。

第一口锅

IEEPA（被否决）：这是一口"万能锅"，理论上可以把关税设定到任何高度，且没有时间限制，总统可以随时随意使用。正是凭借这口锅，特朗普去年对全球征收了高达数十个百分点的"对等关税"。但最高法院这次明确说：宪法没有授权总统用这口锅炒关税这道菜——征税权属于国会，不属于总统。

第二口锅

第122条（现行有效）：这是一口"小炒锅"，受到严格限制：最高只能炒到10%的关税上限，而且最多只能炒150天（约5个月）。时间一到，若要延续，必须获得国会批准。特朗普目前正在使用的，就是这口锅。

简而言之：法院并非叫停了关税本身，而是否定了一种"权力过大、缺乏制衡"的使用方式。关税这把工具仍在总统手中，只是换了一个受约束更多的法律依据。

03一个价值1330亿至1750亿美元的悬案

此次裁决还留下了一个规模惊人、尚无答案的问题：在IEEPA关税框架下，企业已经缴纳的税款，究竟有没有资格申请全额退款？

据估算，自去年以来企业在IEEPA关税下缴纳的总额高达1330亿至1750亿美元。最高法院裁决本身并未就退款问题作出裁定，而是将这一问题移交给下级联邦法院处理。这意味着最终结果可能需要数月乃至更长时间才能明朗。

这笔钱的走向，对市场有两种截然不同的影响：若法院支持退款，亚马逊、苹果、耐克等大型进口商将迎来一笔意外的现金回流，直接利好相关企业盈利和股价；但若联邦政府被迫退出这笔税款，美国财政赤字可能进一步扩大，导致长期国债利率承压上行，对债券和整体市场估值形成一定负面影响。这是今后数月最值得跟踪的市场变量之一。

04市场的即时反应：谁赢了，谁没赢

裁决公布后，市场反应迅速而分化，充分体现了投资者对不同企业和资产类别的差异化判断。

大赢家

科技与零售进口商：亚马逊、Meta、谷歌等大型科技公司均明显反弹。这些公司每年进口大量电子元器件和消费品，是关税政策最直接的"受害者"。关税压力一旦减轻，其利润空间将得到实质性改善。以亚马逊为例，该股此前曾连续九个交易日下跌，累计跌幅近19%，此次反弹有一定的超跌修复意味。

避险资产

黄金与白银：两者均大幅上涨，黄金突破每盎司5100美元，白银单日涨幅高达7.5%。贵金属的走强说明：即便关税最坏的情形得到遏制，市场对贸易政策的长期不确定性仍有相当程度的担忧。聪明的资金在庆祝法律胜利的同时，也在买入保险。

承压方

债券市场与利率：长期国债收益率小幅上升，反映市场对潜在财政赤字扩大的担忧。若关税退款成真，政府财政将承压，这在理论上可能推高借贷成本，对高估值的成长股构成一定压力。

05接下来：特朗普还有哪些牌可打？

此次裁决绝非终点。特朗普政府已明确表示，贸易政策的整体方向不会改变。以下是接下来最值得关注的几条路径：

路径一

寻求国会授权：这是最根本的解决方案。若特朗普能推动国会通过立法，赋予总统独立征收关税的法定权力，则可彻底绕开司法审查的瓶颈。但这需要在参众两院凑足多数票，政治博弈难度不小，短期内难以实现。

路径二

继续动用第232条和第301条：这两项法律均未受到此次裁决的任何影响，仍然完全有效。第232条允许总统以"国家安全"为由征收关税，目前对钢铁、铝的关税仍在执行；第301条则针对"不公平贸易行为"，是对华关税的主要法律依据。换言之，对中国商品的大部分关税，依然原封不动。

路径三

150天窗口期内加速谈判：第122条关税设有150天的法定上限，这反而可能成为推动双边贸易谈判的时间压力。各主要贸易伙伴已有动作，在这个窗口期内与美国达成某种贸易框架协议，是概率相当高的剧情。对于投资者来说，这或许是这出贸易大戏最具建设性的结局。

⚠️ 重要提示：即便IEEPA关税被推翻，针对中国的第301条关税（平均税率约25%以上）仍然完全有效，并无变化。这对于直接或间接在中国有供应链布局的企业，依然是不可忽视的成本因素。

06价值投资者的视角：穿透噪音，看见价值

作为专注于"优质企业、合理估值"的长期投资者，我们不会因一周的宏观事件而改变对核心持仓的基本判断。但这一轮关税风波，提供了几个值得深思的视角：

洞察一

供应链韧性正在成为新的护城河：在关税不确定的大环境下，那些能够灵活重构供应链、将生产迁回美国或实现采购多元化的企业，正在悄悄积累竞争优势。这种优势短期内可能不会反映在财报数字里，却是长期估值的重要组成部分。苹果、英伟达、德州仪器等在供应链多元化上投入巨大的企业，正是这方面的典型代表。

洞察二

短期波动是价值投资者的朋友：过去数月，关税恐慌造成市场对部分优质企业的过度惩罚，估值被压至历史区间的低端。随着最坏情形的法律约束逐步落地，这些定价偏差可能逐步修正。历史反复证明：在别人因宏观恐惧而抛售时，坚守估值纪律的投资者最终获得超额回报。

洞察三

不要因噪音而忘记主线：贸易政策的新闻将持续涌现。但我们始终相信：一家真正优秀的企业，有能力在各种政策环境下适应、调整、并找到增长路径。我们的分析框架不变：关注企业的定价权、资本回报率、管理层质量，而不是下一条关税头条。

07接下来要关注的四件事

2月25日

英伟达（Nvidia）季报：作为本轮人工智能浪潮的绝对核心企业，英伟达的业绩与展望将是未来数周科技股走向最重要的单一催化剂。市场对其数据中心业务的增长预期极高，任何超预期或不及预期的信号，都可能引发板块层面的连锁反应。

7月底前

第122条关税的150天到期：届时若不经国会延续，新关税将自动失效。这一时间节点是观察白宫是否寻求立法授权的关键窗口。

持续追踪

关税退款的司法进展：下级联邦法院的裁定将直接影响进口型企业的现金流预期，一旦有实质性进展，相关板块股价将迅速反应。

年中判断

美联储的利率路径：若关税压力整体缓解，有助于压低进口物价，进而给美联储更多降息空间。目前市场预期美联储最早在2026年6月降息，概率约为57%。降息周期一旦重启，对整体股票估值是系统性利好。

免责声明本文仅为一般性市场与资产配置的观点分享，旨在提供信息参考，不构成任何形式的证券、基金或其他金融产品的买卖建议，也不构成对任何具体投资行为的推荐或保证。文中的数据来自公开数据，作者没有做独立验证。过往业绩不代表未来表现。投资有风险，读者在作出任何投资决定前，应结合自身情况审慎判断，并在必要时咨询持牌专业顾问。

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The Tariff Chessboard Resets: The Court Said No — But Trump Still Has Moves

    Dr. Shi, 21 February 2026

The Supreme Court struck down the President's sweeping tariff powers — and within hours, he found a new legal lever to pull. For investors holding US equities, this week contains both genuine good news and important caveats worth understanding clearly.

What Happened This Week?

Friday, February 20, 2026, was one of those rare trading days that felt genuinely historic. In the morning, the US Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that President Trump had exceeded his legal authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose sweeping "reciprocal tariffs" on imports from virtually every country in the world. Markets cheered immediately — the S&P 500 closed up 0.7% at 6,909, the Nasdaq gained 0.9%, snapping a painful five-week losing streak.

But the White House moved faster than the celebrations. Within hours of the ruling, Trump appeared at a combative White House briefing — publicly lambasting even the Republican-appointed justices who voted against him — and announced he would sign an executive order imposing a new 10% tariff on all imported goods under a separate legal authority: Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. That order took effect at 12:01 a.m. on Monday, February 24.

02Two Laws, Two Very Different Pots

For readers who are not trade lawyers — which is most of us — the legal mechanics here can feel opaque. Let us use a simple analogy.

Think of Trump's tariff strategy as a chef trying to cook the same dish using whatever pots are available in the kitchen.

Pot One

IEEPA (struck down):This was an "all-purpose pot" — it allowed the President to set tariffs at virtually any level, on virtually any country, for an indefinite duration, with minimal Congressional oversight. It was this authority that underpinned last year's sweeping reciprocal tariffs of 20%, 30%, even higher. The Supreme Court said, plainly: the Constitution does not give the President the power to unilaterally impose taxes of this kind. The power to tax belongs to Congress, not the executive.

Pot Two

Section 122 (currently active):This is a much smaller, more restricted pot. It caps tariffs at 10%, and limits their duration to 150 days. After that, any extension requires explicit Congressional approval. This is the authority Trump is now using — with the new 10% global tariff taking effect February 24.

The critical point: The court did not ban tariffs altogether.It ruled against one particularly expansive use of presidential power. The tariff tool remains in Trump's hands — just with significantly tighter legal guardrails and a ticking clock.

03A $133–175 Billion Question Left Unanswered

Beyond the immediate market reaction, the Supreme Court's ruling left one enormous and potentially market-moving question entirely unresolved: Are companies that already paid IEEPA-based tariffs entitled to a refund?

Estimates of the total tariff revenue collected under IEEPA range from $133 billion to $175 billion. The Supreme Court ruling itself made no determination on the refund question — it has been referred to a lower federal court, and a final ruling could take months. Treasury Secretary Bessent stated that the new Section 122 tariffs are expected to generate "virtually unchanged tariff revenue in 2026," suggesting the administration is not expecting to pay out large refunds. But the legal question remains open.

The two-sided market implication is worth understanding clearly. If courts order large-scale refunds, companies like Amazon, Apple, and Nike — all heavy importers — would receive significant unexpected cash inflows, directly boosting earnings. But refunding $100-plus billion from the federal government's coffers would meaningfully widen the US budget deficit, likely pushing long-term bond yields higher and adding valuation pressure on growth stocks. This is one of the most important financial storylines to track in the months ahead.

04Market Reaction: Who Won, Who Didn't

The market's response to Friday's ruling was swift, broad-based, and instructive. Here is how the pieces moved — and what each move signals.

Winners

Tech and large-scale importers:Amazon, Meta, and Google led the rally. These companies import billions of dollars of hardware, components, and consumer goods annually — making them among the biggest direct beneficiaries of any tariff reduction. Amazon, notably, had fallen nearly 19% over nine consecutive trading sessions as capex concerns and tariff anxiety weighed heavily. Friday's bounce had elements of both fundamental relief and technical oversold recovery.

Safe Havens

Gold and silver:Both surged sharply — gold crossing $5,100 per ounce, silver jumping 7.5% in a single session. The strength in precious metals is a signal that smart money is not declaring victory. With Section 122 tariffs still active, potential Congressional wrangling ahead, and China-specific tariffs untouched, hedging against ongoing uncertainty remains rational.

Pressure

Bonds and long-term rates:The 10-year Treasury yield edged modestly higher. Bond markets are quietly pricing in the possibility that tariff refunds could widen the deficit — and that a less inflationary tariff backdrop might reduce pressure on the Fed to stay on hold. The interplay between tariffs, inflation, and rates remains one of the central dynamics shaping US equity valuations in 2026.

05The Road Ahead: What Cards Does Trump Still Hold?

This ruling is a turning point, not a conclusion. The Trump administration has demonstrated both determination and legal creativity in advancing its trade agenda. Investors should track three distinct paths forward.

Path One

Seeking Congressional legislation:The most durable solution for the administration would be legislation explicitly granting the President broad tariff authority, free from the time and magnitude constraints of Section 122. This requires majority support in both chambers of Congress — a significant political lift, but one the Republican leadership may attempt given the administration's priorities. Success would restore much of the tariff firepower that the court just curtailed.

Path Two

Sections 232 and 301 remain fully intact:Neither of these laws was touched by Friday's ruling. Section 232 — the national security provision — continues to underpin tariffs on steel, aluminium, and other strategic goods. Section 301 — targeting unfair trade practices — remains the primary legal basis for the extensive tariffs on Chinese imports, which average well above 25%. For investors monitoring US-China trade dynamics specifically, the operative word is: nothing has changed on the China front.

Path Three

The 150-day window accelerates negotiations:Paradoxically, the time-limited nature of Section 122 tariffs may be the most constructive outcome for global trade. Trading partners — including the EU, Japan, South Korea, and others — now have both an incentive and a window to negotiate bilateral trade frameworks with the US before July. If deals are struck, some of the tariff pressure could be converted into structured trade agreements, reducing uncertainty significantly. This is arguably the most market-positive scenario.

⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTE FOR CHINA-EXPOSED INVESTORS

Section 301 tariffs on Chinese goods — averaging 25% or higher on most categories — remain fully in force and were completely unaffected by Friday's ruling. For businesses and investors with direct exposure to US-China trade flows, the tariff calculus has not materially changed.

06The Value Investor's Perspective: Looking Through the Noise

As long-term investors focused on owning great businesses at fair prices, our fundamental assessment of a company does not change because of one week's headlines. But this tariff episode offers three concrete insights worth internalising.

Insight One

Supply chain resilience is the new moat: In an era of sustained trade policy uncertainty, companies that can restructure their supply chains — diversifying sourcing geographies, reshoring critical production, or embedding flexibility into procurement — are building a durable competitive advantage that will compound over years. Apple's aggressive investment in Indian manufacturing, Nvidia's multi-vendor chip strategy, and Texas Instruments' domestic fab expansion are examples of businesses taking this seriously. These are the kinds of strategic decisions that create long-term value regardless of which tariff regime is in place.

Insight Two

Short-term volatility is the value investor's ally: Over the past several months, tariff-induced anxiety caused markets to overpunish a number of high-quality businesses, dragging valuations to multi-year lows relative to intrinsic value. As the legal framework around tariffs becomes clearer and the worst-case scenarios are constrained, those pricing gaps are likely to close. History consistently shows that investors who maintain valuation discipline during periods of macro fear — rather than capitulating to headlines — generate the strongest long-run returns.

Insight Three

Don't lose the thread:Trade policy news will keep coming. The media will continue to generate dramatic headlines with every executive order, court ruling, and presidential press briefing. Our analytical framework remains unchanged: we focus on a company's pricing power, return on invested capital, quality of management, and competitive position. These fundamentals determine long-term value — not the tariff rate on any given Monday morning.

07Four Things to Watch in the Weeks Ahead

Feb 25

Nvidia Earnings:As the single most important company in the AI infrastructure buildout, Nvidia's quarterly results and forward guidance will be the defining catalyst for technology stocks in the near term. Market expectations are extremely high — any guidance that falls short of the already-lofty consensus could trigger a broad-based tech selloff. Conversely, a strong print could reignite confidence across the entire AI supply chain.

Late July

The Section 122 tariff expiry:The 150-day clock started February 24. If Congress does not act, these tariffs expire in late July. Watch for any bipartisan or Republican-only legislative efforts to extend or replace them — this will be a key signal of how much political capital the administration is willing to spend on trade.

Ongoing

The tariff refund court case:Lower federal court proceedings on the refund question will be worth monitoring closely. A ruling in favour of broad refunds would be a direct and material cash benefit for import-heavy companies — and a potentially significant market catalyst.

Mid-2026

The Federal Reserve's rate path:If tariff relief reduces import price pressures and helps bring inflation closer to the Fed's 2% target, the probability of a mid-2026 rate cut could rise meaningfully. Current market pricing puts the odds of a June cut at approximately 57%. A resumption of the rate cut cycle would be a systemic positive for equity valuations — particularly for quality businesses trading at reasonable multiples.

Disclaimer This commentary is for general information and discussion only. It is not investment advice and is not a recommendation to buy or sell any security, fund or financial product. It does not take into account any reader’s specific objectives, financial situation or needs. Any performance figures mentioned refer to past results; past performance is not indicative of future returns. All investments involve risk. Readers should make their own decisions or consult licensed professional advisers before acting on any information contained here.