贝森特在“特朗普称对欧洲加 50% 关税”后的两次采访,救火队员实锤,中英双语,20250524

新闻

作者：微信文章
贝森特周日CNN 采访中表示：他“不太相信穆迪的降级”，中英双语 20250518

美国顶级银行家、科技高管、沙特官员和商界领袖参加的沙特-美国投资论坛全文，贝森特再次发表对于特朗普经济的阐述 20250513

两次采访中讨论了更多内容，以下是涵盖的主要话题总结：

由于关税，现在有可观的收入流入。

对赤字前景非常乐观。

在接下来的几周内，我们将宣布几项大型协议。

表示欧盟存在集体行动问题。

预计将再次与东方进行面对面谈判。

非常乐观地认为德国能够推动欧盟向前发展。

在总理默茨领导下，可能会看到美德关系重置。

认为债券波动是由国会行动引起的观点是错误的。

随着美国经济增长加速，不担心债务动态。

对市场想法并不特别担心。

不一定会将其归类为美元疲软。

其他国家的货币在上涨，而不是美元在下跌。

政府支出削减面临很多阻力。

2026年第三季度至第四季度将启动去监管以促进增长。

希望使美国成为对资本最具吸引力的地方。

非常接近于调整SLR，可能会在夏季看到SLR调整。

SLR的调整可能对国债收益率产生影响。

当贸易协议解决后，可以专注于房利美和房地美的私有化。

G7对东方的失衡问题非常关注。

在今天上午于福克斯新闻和彭博电视的几次冗长采访中，财政部长斯科特·贝森特表示，未来几周可能会宣布“几项大型”贸易协议，并补充说，他预计特朗普政府官员将再次与东方同行进行面对面谈判，以商讨那些关税问题。他还表示，他预计到2028年，美国预算赤字“将是一个前面带有3%的数字”，而关税收入将被用来解决赤字问题。

贝森特在接受彭博电视大卫·韦斯汀采访时表示：“我的感觉是，在接下来的几周内，我们将宣布几项大型协议。”关于东方，他说：“我预计我们将再次与他们进行面对面谈判。”这些言论建立在贝森特周五早些时候的评论基础上，他当时表示，预计这些协议将在4月2日特朗普总统公布的90天暂停期结束前达成，该暂停期涉及陡峭的“对等”关税。

贝森特在早些时候接受福克斯新闻采访时表示：“这些协议进展很快，我认为随着90天期限的临近，我们将看到越来越多的协议被宣布。”他还说：“许多亚洲国家提出了非常好的协议。”

贝森特表示，大多数美国贸易伙伴一直在“非常诚信地”谈判，而欧盟是个“例外”。特朗普周五早些时候威胁称，将从6月1日起对欧盟商品征收50%的关税，并表示“我们与他们的讨论毫无进展。”

贝森特谈到特朗普的威胁时说：“我认为这是对欧盟谈判节奏的回应。我希望这能激励欧盟加快行动。”

这位财政部长已被特朗普指定为与多个亚洲贸易伙伴谈判的负责人，而商务部长霍华德·卢特尼克则负责与欧洲的谈判。贝森特重申了他的观点，即欧盟在谈判中存在“集体行动问题”，因为需要在其多个成员国之间形成统一立场。他的意思是，美国正在与未被选举产生的欧洲官僚（毕竟这是欧洲）谈判，而不是与主权国家的代表谈判，这就是为何进展困难的原因。

贝森特拒绝透露美国在未来几周可能与哪些国家宣布协议。他在福克斯新闻的采访中确实提到，“我们与印度的谈判进展很远。”

他还表示，特朗普4月2日宣布的所谓“解放日”关税税率是“基于各国以诚信态度与我们谈判”。在那次宣布后，贝森特曾多次表示，这些税率是一个上限，除非其他国家进行报复。他在4月9日的美国银行家协会活动上说：“如果你不报复，那就是上限。”上个月，欧盟被分配了20%的税率，不到特朗普周五威胁水平的一半。

当被问及本周早些时候众议院通过的税收法案时，这位财政部长表示，参议院多数党领袖约翰·图恩正计划“立即着手处理这项法案，我不认为参议院会对法案进行太多修改”。

谈到债务问题，财政部长表示，由于美国能够增长经济并控制债务，“重要的是经济增速要快于债务增速”，并补充说，“如果我们改变国家的增长轨迹，改变经济的增长轨迹，那么我们将稳定我们的财政状况，并通过增长摆脱困境。”

他还指出，问题在于国会对抗议削减支出的阻力很大。嗯，这是显而易见的。这可不是白白被称为“贪污”。

虽然关税带来的适度收入增长受到欢迎，但它们永远无法完全抵消年复一年累积的额外支出。说到关税，贝森特表示：“关税有一个均衡税率，我认为我们会达到这个税率。关税壁垒或非关税贸易壁垒正在下降，因此摩擦正在减少。这将带来每年数千亿美元的收入，这将意味着美国需要发行的债券减少数千亿美元。”

这也是为什么贝森特赞扬了马斯克在Doge方面的努力，他说这是“我一生中最重要的事情之一，我致力于不让官僚机构拖慢进度。”

“我们需要控制成本；我们需要控制政府效率；我们需要让政府为美国人民更好地工作。”是的，嗯，马斯克花了大约四个月时间才意识到什么都改变不了，即使在几个月内削减了几千亿美元的毫无必要的政府支出，他很快震惊于腐败的根深蒂固，现在正逐渐从华盛顿的舞台上淡出。

在对市场最重要的议题上，贝森特告诉彭博社，“我们非常接近于调整银行的补充杠杆比率（SLR）。”他说，SLR的调整可能会使收益率下降数十个基点。这一评论使后端收益率略有下降。

谈到债券，贝森特否认了美国债券市场抛售与“宏伟美丽”税收法案通过有关的观点（他错了）。贝森特表示，他对债券市场的波动并不担心，并强调这是全球现象。

最后但并非最不重要的是，贝森特对特朗普的最新对手哈佛大学发表了一些尖锐评论，财政部长称其为“一个巨大的对冲基金”。



During several lengthy interviews this morning on Fox News and Bloomberg TV, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said there could be “several large” trade deals announced in the next couple of weeks, adding that he expects Trump administration officials will meet with their Chinese counterparts again in-person to negotiate those tariffs. He also said he expects the US budget deficit "to be something with a 3% in front of it by 2028" with revenue from tariffs to be used to solve the deficit.

“My sense is, over the next couple of weeks we’re going to have several large deals announced,” Bessent said in an interview with Bloomberg TV’s David Westin. Regarding China, he said “I expect that we will be negotiating in-person with them again.” The remarks build on Bessent’s comments earlier Friday that he anticipates such deals will come ahead of the expiration of the 90-day pause on the steep “reciprocal” rates that President Donald Trump unveiled on April 2.

“These deals are moving quickly, and I think as we approach the end of the 90-day period, we’re going to see more and more of them announced,” Bessent said in an earlier interview with Fox News. “Many of the Asian countries have come with very good deals.”

Bessent said that most US trading partners have been negotiating “in very good faith,” and that the European Union is an “exception.” Trump earlier Friday threatened a 50% tariff on EU goods starting on June 1, saying “our discussions with them are going nowhere.”

“I think this is in response just to the EU’s pace,” Bessent said of Trump’s threat. “I would hope that this would light a fire under the EU.”

The Treasury chief has been tapped by Trump as point person for negotiations with a number of Asian trading partners, while Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has taken the lead on European talks. Bessent reiterated his view that the EU has a “collective action problem” in negotiating, because of the need to assemble a unified position among multiple member nations. What he means by this is that the US is negotiating with unelected European bureaucrats (it is Europe after all) and not with representatives of sovereign states, which is why it is difficult to make any headway.

Bessent declined to specify which nations the US is likely to announce deals with in the coming weeks. He did say in the Fox interview that “we’re far along with India.”

He also said that the so-called liberation day tariff rates that Trump announced April 2 were “based on countries coming to us and negotiating in good faith.” After that announcement, Bessent had repeatedly said that those rates were a ceiling unless other nations retaliated. “If you don’t retaliate, that is the ceiling,” he said April 9 at an American Bankers Association event. The EU was assigned a 20% rate last month, less than half the level of Trump’s Friday threat.

Asked about the tax bill that passed the House earlier this week, the Treasury chief said that Senate Majority Leader John Thune is aiming “to take this up immediately, and I’m not expecting that there’s going to have to be that much change” in the legislation in that chamber.

Turning to the debt, the Treasury chief said that since the US can grow the economy and control the debt, "what is important is that the economy grows faster than the debt" adding that "if we change the growth trajectory of the country, of the economy, then we will stabilize our finances and grow our way out of this."

The problem, as he also pointed out, is that there is lots of Congressional resistance to spending cuts. Well, duh. It's not called grift for nothing.

While the modest revenue gains from tariffs are appreciated, they will never be able to fully offset all of the extra spending which just piles up year after year. And speaking of tariffs, Bessent said that "there is an equilibrium rate for tariffs and I think we will reach that rate. Tariff barriers or nontariff trade barriers are coming down, so friction is decreasing. This will lead to several hundred billion dollars a year of revenue, which will correlate to several hundred billion less bonds that the US has to issue."

It's also why Bessent praised Musk's efforts with Doge, which he said was "one of the most important of my lifetime and I am committed to not letting the bureaucracy slow it down."

"We need to get the costs under control; we need to get government efficiency under control; and we need to make the government work better for the American people." Yes, well, it took Musk about 4 months to realize that nothing can ever change, and even after cutting a few hundred billion in gratuitous government spending in a few months, he was quickly shocked at just how embedded corruption is and is now fading away from the DC scene.

In terms of matters that matter most to the market, Bessent told Bloomberg that "we are very close to moving the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for banks." He said an SLR shift could bring down yields by tens of basis points. The comment helped back-end yield fall slightly.

And speaking of bonds, Bessent rejected the idea that the US bond market selloff is related to the passing of the "Big, Beautiful" tax bill (he is wrong). Bessent said he is not worried about bond market moves which he stressed was happening globally.

There was much more in the two interviews; here is a summary of the main topics covered:

Substantial revenue now coming in thanks to tariffs.

Very optimistic on outlook for deficit.

Over the next couple weeks we're going to have several large deals announced.

Says EU has a collective action problem.

Expect they will be negotiating with China in person again.

Very optimistic Germany can help push the EU forward.

May see a US-Germany reset under Chancellor Merz.

Wrong to think bonds are moving on US Congress action

As US growth accelerates not worried about debt dynamics.

Not particularly worried about markets are thinking.

Wouldn't necessarily categorize it as weak Dollar.

Other countries' currencies rising, not Dollar falling.

There is a lot of resistance to government spending cuts.

Deregulation is to kick in for growth in Q3-Q4, 2026.

Want to make the US the most attractive for capital.

Very close to moving the SLR and could see SLR move over the summer.

A shift in SLR could have an impact on Treasury yields.

When trade deals are sorted, can focus on the privatization of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

G7 was very concerned about imbalances around China.

Last but not least, Bessent had some choice comments about Trump's latest nemesis, Harvard University, which the Treasury secretary called "one giant hedge fund."