关税是否引发通胀?数据提供线索

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作者：微信文章
一、外刊原文及翻译

原文 1：关税与通胀的总体情况


The highest tariffs in almost a century haven’t caused the massive surge in inflation many economists feared. But that shouldn’t have come as a surprise, according to two new studies.

翻译：
近一个世纪以来最高的关税并未引发许多经济学家担忧的大规模通胀飙升。但根据两项新研究，这其实并不令人意外。

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原文 2：旧金山联储的研究发现


Economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco combed through data from 1886 to 2017 and found that previous tariff increases usually didn’t lead to higher inflation. On the contrary: They slowed down price growth.

翻译：
旧金山联邦储备银行的经济学家梳理了1886年至2017年的数据，发现以往的关税上调通常不会导致通胀上升。相反，它们减缓了价格增长。

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原文 3：西北大学的研究发现


A separate recent paper by economists at Northwestern University found that inflation picked up following tariff increases, but only a little.

翻译：
西北大学经济学家近期发表的另一篇论文发现，关税上调后通胀确实有所上升，但幅度很小。

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原文 4：研究结论


That’s the good news. The bad news: Both papers conclude that tariffs tend to hurt the economy and that a blow to consumer and business demand likely explains why the impact on inflation is so limited.

翻译：
这是好消息。坏消息是：两篇论文均得出结论，关税往往会损害经济，而对消费者和企业需求的打击可能解释了为何其对通胀的影响如此有限。

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原文 5：特朗普宣布关税时的预测


When President Trump announced sweeping tariffs last spring, economists widely predicted surging inflation, a stronger dollar and a significant slowdown in economic growth. That largely hasn’t come to pass.

翻译：
去年春天特朗普总统宣布大规模关税时，经济学家普遍预测通胀将飙升、美元将走强、经济增长将显著放缓。但这些预测大多未成真。

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原文 6：通胀与就业现状


Inflation has picked up since April and remains well above the Fed’s 2% target, frustrating voters, but it hasn’t surged. Hiring is down and unemployment inching up, but the economy is chugging along.

翻译：
自4月以来通胀有所上升，但仍远高于美联储2%的目标，令选民失望，但并未飙升。招聘减少、失业率小幅上升，但经济仍在运转。

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原文 7：制造业复兴的预测未实现


At the same time, the Trump administration’s predictions of a manufacturing renaissance also haven’t materialized.

翻译：
与此同时，特朗普政府预测的制造业复兴也未实现。

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原文 8：主流经济学的反思


“Mainstream economics has something to answer for on this,” said Jonathan Ostry, an economist at the University of Toronto.

翻译：
“主流经济学对此负有一定责任，”多伦多大学经济学家乔纳森·奥斯特里表示。

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原文 9：基本经济原理与历史数据的对比


Basic economic principles suggest that higher tariffs should push up the price of imported goods, typically leading to a one-time increase in inflation. But historical data paints a more nuanced picture.

翻译：
基本经济原理表明，更高的关税应会推高进口商品价格，通常导致通胀一次性上升。但历史数据呈现出更复杂的图景。

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原文 10：旧金山联储的具体数据


The San Francisco Fed economists, Regis Barnichon and Aayush Singh, found that a 1-percentage-point increase in tariffs went along with a 0.6-percentage-point drop in inflation.

翻译：
旧金山联储经济学家雷吉斯·巴尔尼雄和阿尤什·辛格发现，关税每上调1个百分点，通胀会下降0.6个百分点。

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原文 11：关税与失业的关系


The economists also found that rising tariffs went hand in hand with rising unemployment, which may help explain the inflation riddle.

翻译：
经济学家还发现，关税上调与失业率上升同步，这可能有助于解释通胀之谜。

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原文 12：西北大学的具体数据


The Northwestern economists, Tamar den Besten and Diego Känzig, looked at data from 1840 to 2024 and found that tariff increases were usually followed by slightly higher inflation.

翻译：
西北大学经济学家塔玛·登·贝斯特恩和迭戈·坎齐格研究了1840年至2024年的数据，发现关税上调后通胀通常会小幅上升。

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原文 13：进口成本与需求下降的平衡


But the impact was small because rising import costs were counterbalanced by falling demand as imports and exports dropped and manufacturing activity contracted.

翻译：
但影响较小，因为进口成本上升被需求下降所抵消——进出口下降、制造业活动收缩。

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原文 14：经济疲软的迹象


While overall economic growth has been healthy since the tariffs took effect last year, signs of weakness have begun to emerge. Hiring has slowed to a crawl since April, prompting the Fed to lower interest rates three times in the second half of 2025.

翻译：
尽管关税生效后整体经济增长稳健，但疲软迹象已开始显现。自4月以来招聘几乎停滞，促使美联储在2025年下半年三次降息。

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原文 15：制造业指数下降


Meanwhile, a key index tracking activity in the manufacturing sector fell to a 14-month low in December.

翻译：
与此同时，追踪制造业活动的关键指数在12月跌至14个月低点。

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原文 16：对未来通胀的分歧


Some economists argue that Trump’s tariffs will eventually have a bigger impact on inflation as companies gradually raise prices. Others point out that the real tariff rates companies actually pay are lower than the headline numbers, thanks in part to loopholes and exemptions.

翻译：
一些经济学家认为，随着企业逐步提价，特朗普的关税最终将对通胀产生更大影响。另一些人指出，企业实际支付的关税税率低于官方数字，部分归功于漏洞和豁免。

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原文 17：实际关税税率的研究


A new working paper by economists at Harvard and the University of Chicago found that the real average tariff rate was 14.1% as of late September, well below the headline number of 27.4%.

翻译：
哈佛大学和芝加哥大学经济学家的一份新工作论文发现，截至9月下旬，实际平均关税税率为14.1%，远低于官方公布的27.4%。

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原文 18：历史未必重演


Just because past tariff increases hurt the economy but didn’t lead to higher inflation doesn’t mean history is bound to repeat itself, said Ostry. The last time U.S. import duties were as high as they are today was in the 1930s, and back then the U.S. was on the gold standard and Manhattan was full of factories.

翻译：
奥斯特里表示，过去关税上调损害经济但未导致通胀上升，并不意味着历史必然重演。美国进口关税上一次达到当前水平是在20世纪30年代，当时美国实行金本位制，曼哈顿遍布工厂。

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原文 19：世界已不同


“The world is different today,” he said.

翻译：
“如今的世界已不同，”他说。

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二、重点词汇讲解

tariff

词性： 名词释义： 关税例句： The government imposed new tariffs on imported steel.考研用法： 常用于国际贸易和经济学领域。

inflation

词性： 名词释义： 通胀例句： High inflation erodes purchasing power.考研用法： 在宏观经济和政策分析中常见。

sweeping

词性： 形容词释义： 大规模的例句： The new policy had sweeping implications for the industry.考研用法： 用于描述政策或改革的广泛影响。

materialize

词性： 动词释义： 实现例句： The predicted economic boom never materialized.考研用法： 在预测和期望的语境中常见。

nuanced

词性： 形容词释义： 细微的例句： The study provides a nuanced analysis of the issue.考研用法： 用于描述复杂或细致的分析。

counterbalance

词性： 动词释义： 抵消例句： Rising wages were counterbalanced by higher prices.考研用法： 在经济学中用于描述平衡关系。

loophole

词性： 名词释义： 漏洞例句： Companies exploit loopholes in tax laws to reduce payments.考研用法： 在法律和政策讨论中常见。

exemption

词性： 名词释义： 豁免例句： Certain goods are eligible for tariff exemptions.考研用法： 在贸易和税收政策中频繁使用。

implication

词性： 名词释义： 影响例句： The new law has far-reaching implications for businesses.考研用法： 常用于分析政策或事件的后果。

erode

词性： 动词释义： 削弱例句： Inflation erodes the value of savings.考研用法： 在经济学和金融中常见。